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Revlon, Inc. Message Board

  • pistolpete81 pistolpete81 Apr 23, 2008 7:34 PM Flag

    An interesting scenario...

    Last week REV pre-announced a projected net loss of $5M, or less than -.01/share for Q108 (vs. -.03 estimates).

    When they announce officially next week - there could be some creative accounting to round that out to a break-even or better. REV has not had 2 consecutive quarters in the black for as far back a I can find.

    They are also likely to give rough revenue guidance for Q208 which will be positive considering the initial stocking of their new 2008 product lines.

    Will analysts feel compelled to revise their negative opinions of REV given the past 7 quarters of improving numbers and positive guidance? We shall see...

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    • the last 7 quarters will be the deciding factor if stockholders start requesting a larger scale buyback with escalating research and development free agent models the money dries up quick

    • IMO Revenue is just one factor - and the trend is the important thing. Besides - analysts have been increasing their EPS estimates over the past year - so I believe their revenue estimates will prove low also for '08 and '09.

      The thing that is exciting is the EPS growth... and the recent positive revisions, which I expect to continue.

      2002 -$5.49
      2003 -$2.47
      2004 -$0.47
      2005 -$0.23
      2006 -$0.62
      2007 -$0.03
      2008 +$0.03
      2009 +$0.04

    • Doesn't that work out to roughly 5% rev growth per year? That just won't cut it if the objective is to get people excited about the stock.

    • You're right on Marketshare - it has been going down. But revenue has been growing. Longer term REV plans to retake marketshare with their new product offerings promoted by new spokesmodels.

      Comes down to whether you think they can revitalize their sales or not. Track record isn't great - but I like what Kennedy's done.

      Here's the recent revenue history

      2002 Revenue $1,119M
      2003 Revenue $1,299M
      2004 Revenue $1,297M
      2005 Revenue $1,332M
      2006 Revenue $1,331M
      2007 Revenue $1,400M
      2008 Revenue $1,400M (est)
      2009 Revenue $1,430M (est)

    • Pete,

      How can you say this is a growth story? Turnaround, yes, but growth? Didn't they announce on the last cc that they had lost 1% market share? I, very honestly, may be mistaken on that one, but I thought it's what they said.

      Of course, given the exhuberence of the call, I think I was asleep on my keyboard by then ;)

    • I agree - it will be a very interesting 'turnaround' year. Shorts would be stupid to touch this stock now knowing RP can (and will) buy up the float in a heartbeat.

      And getting to the $20-$30 range post split is not that hard to imagine.

      Q4-2007 REV earned .80c/share (post-split). If they just break even Q1-Q3 and earn another .80c Q4 this year - that would justify a $16-$32 SP (post-split).

      Since this is a turnaround/growth story - I would see it on the higher PE end.

    • I think we may see some surprising things this year. I suspect Perelman will take this private
      at around $20. Now that it is finally turning around he will capture the upside. Remember he has been
      actively buying the common shares to get them off the table.

    • The results are so much better than the stated headlines but somehow get lost in the translation.Revlon cut it's Q1 loss from $35 mil to $5mil and shows a ttm profit for the first time in years,but the headlines are Revlon sales down, see Q1 net loss aprox $5mil,approve 10 to 1 reverse split. The company's results may receive a more favorable analysis at the conference call on May 1st, if the management is more accomadating answering questions than the last time

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