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Under Armour, Inc. Message Board

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 23, 2007 4:24 PM Flag

    Note to Montereyguy

    I'm noting the recent weakness in sporting goods retailers here, particularly DKS. I assume that this has something to do with the lack of snow. The fliers I get from Big Five and Sports Authority seem to have dramatic markdowns on skis, snowboards, and all the attendant gear. (Of course low traffic at sporting goods stores in no way affects UA.) As the resident sporting goods retailer here, what is the impact on earnings of a low-snow year? And to what extent do the manufacturers eat the markdowns? As for UA, remember that this is not an issue of logic, but of faith in a blowout earnings number and the attendant price runup. I cleared out all but 1,000 shares of my short position yesterday, but couldn't resist shorting another 1,000 at 48.90 today. I think the longs have to squeeze this one more time before they can start to exit. If they have the guts to hang around through earnings, fine. I'll sell some more on the news. The interesting discovery yesterday for me is that there isn't really a large retail short position in this stock at this point. So I'd stand back awhile and watch the big boys play.

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    • funny, i shorted another 1500 at 48.99..

      Well as far as the snow goes..im in sunny California. UA does not take back stock. we order, we sell it or not, UA gets there money. I just put on 20 items on ebay at 50% off retail, some cold gear ( snow stuff) Ill be curious to see what happens along with some hooded pullovers. Dicks and Goldman are pushing still free shipping on UA, that tells me they have inventory, inventory which is paid to UA already, however futures orders will be lower as they already have stuff in stock..that has been my point prior to XMAS, I did not see it flying off the shelves. I can see high earnings this qtr, but I do not believe that they will raise guidance again..
      go to ebay, look at all the UA stuff for sale, lots of it sittign there with no bids..I believe its catching up to itself. All the stuff listed is from guys like me, sporting goods dealers. We are the only ones who can get it ( unelss staff steals it and resells it). A few XMAs gifts that no one wanted are on there too Im sure..
      After all that blabbing, did I answer your question?

      • 1 Reply to monteryguy35
      • my point on the ebay thing is just as in the stock market..

        a guy buys some product, it doesnt sell, it goes on EBAY and he gets what he can, hopefully what he paid for it. Normally he will learn a lesson and not buy that product again since he got burnt, he will only buy what works. If he has inventory left over,,he won't be replacing it on the next qtrs order.
        Now I dont know what kind of deal Dicks has, possibly they have the opportunity to sell it back to UA, but us little guys..NO WAY. what UA doesnt sell goes into thier outlets stores ( yes they now have outlet stores) so you don't need to pay top $, just wait till it gets to the outles. I know I will not be carrying some of the odd items expensive(polos, hoodies, vneck jackets, etc..Im just going to stick with the tight shirts for the most part.

 
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