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Under Armour, Inc. Message Board

  • monteryguy35 monteryguy35 Jan 24, 2007 6:52 PM Flag

    bearofbleckr, cmfd144, cbnz

    so lets look at earnings..
    what do you feel its going to need to juice this up? beat by .02, .04 , .06?? and what kind of guidance for 2007?
    Just talked to a UA distributor, they make the little things for UA ( JR286) I causally asked how the christmas season was, was it nuts and crazy and the guy said " it was ok, we handled it"

    anywyas, the stock is being run up , again..im just wondering what its going to take to move this to new highss ...55+

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    • Watch the option action. Unless they can find some more takers for those $50 calls, they could have trouble holding it up. Trying to collar it at 50 now.

    • but someone or people are hitting the bid each time..

    • Well my heart wants to believe the selling is due to someone hearing about earnings that are not exceeding expecttions. however i think the selling is market related only. and then my hope is that bearofbleeker is correct that "they" are going to walk it down..hopefully further..

    • Watch them try to pin it right here at 50.25 - a neat little .50 stepdown - while they try to sell some calls to the true believers. The tell is that when it threatened to slip under 50, there was a little flurry of above-ask buy orders taking it up above 50.25, Watch the matching buy/sell orders hold it up all day, like a drunk being supported by a strong guy under either arm. Everyone else at the party says, "Gee, given that the market's down today, old UA is holding up pretty well."

    • Remember this is a stock with a small float and a large amount of hype. If you and I were buddies and we each had the resources of an investment bank or a hedge fund at our disposal, what would be wrong with you agreeing to buy a certain number of shares from me at incrementally greater prices, thereby exciting the little people, and me agreeing to buy them back from you at roughly the same - or slightly lower - prices on the way down? Hopefully, on the way up I have also been able to sell the little folks some of my holdings at the inflated prices you have created,and I am also able to sell some calls at the higher level. Now we walk it down gently, selling calls along the way. I could unload a major chunk of stock this way without damaging the price. And if I had sold an insider a put for a below-market price before starting this process, it would be relatively riskfree. I think it happens all the time.

    • what do you mean, passing it back and forth? why would they walk it up? to get some shorts to cover? if they indeed walked it up, now what? theyve paid for shares at this higher level. Just not sure the logical reason for this? are they just going to sell it back down? were they trying to get a squeeze going?..anyways thanks as alwys for your insight..

    • Up until they couldn't drive it down to $45 or even $50 for expiration last week, I thought it would be a good quarter with a small beat - a couple pennies or so. Not enough to drive it to new highs, but enough to continue to support the longer term bull thesis and keep the up trend more or less intact.

      After last week, I don't know what to think. Smitty has been referring to growing institutional interest in the past few weeks which seems to explain HOW max pain was avoided, but not why. Everyone knows that there are more and different shoes coming soon, and that is the heart of my own bullish thesis, but as a longer term play. There has been so much hype over the shoes that I find it hard to believe that the mere fact of the release isn't already priced in. I don't expect to see much more movement in the stock based on shoes until they demonstrate that they are in fact taking share from Nike - which should take a couple quarters, if it happens that way at all (I think it will). That leaves only one other explanation I can think of and that is a much better than expected quarter being whispered about on the street.

      I don't agree that this is pure manipulation to sucker people before earnings because of the lack of max pain. If the quarter wasn't great, it would have made more sense to knock it down to max pain last week, then hype it back up this week into earnings which would disappoint and bring it back down. There was a LOT of potential profits for the market makers lost by not getting it to $45 Friday. The Barrons article was a week too late.

      I am really at a loss to guess where it goes the next couple weeks. I had every intention of selling some before earnings. Now I don't know. My gut tells me that anything less than spectacular will cause short term pain and that it will be good but not spectacular. I'm indecisive though because I can't come up with a plausible reason why it didn't come down last week other than a spectacular quarter. Since I still believe in the long-term bull case and tend not to do much trading on my long term positions I'll probably do what I've done every time so far with this one - sit on my hands and ride out any short term pain that may come.

    • montereyguy,
      Have been checking out a couple of stores in my area (Maryland), the local Sports Authority has seemed pretty well stocked with shirts and accessories but it wasn't until a week or so ago did I see any meaningful number of UA shoes around. Up until that point I could always count them on two hands, now they have moved in a ton of Baseball cleats. If all of the SA's spring shoes showed up after the first of the year I assume that SA would be sitting on a huge bill which may or may not show up as receiveables for the forth quarter. Good or bad assumption? Since Christmas it seems like everything in the store in terms of clothes has been marked down considerably but UA and some Nike stuff. Either they keep restocking the UA shelves or there is a lot of inventory sitting. If the stores would normaly have reordered ColdGear during the quarter it probably didn't happen. The warm weather on the East Coast had to have hurt them in either the '06 forth or the '07 first quarter.

    • callan.l@sbcglobal.net callan.l Jan 24, 2007 8:06 PM Flag

      my sports shop tell me this was an under urmor christmas oh ye shorts look at ebay

      • 1 Reply to callan.l
      • you know what, i think your right, i think it was a UA xmas. I called 4 random stores today, all said they had a good UA xmas...urg!
        Accounting wise, im not sure how its recorded. I assume that for the yr end qtr, they only count $$ in hand, correct?
        most people who bought in december, have 30-60-90 days to pay??
        so the qtr could be light, first qtr 07 could be better..but wtf do i know, this stock is killing me!

 
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