dolc, I like and enjoy your posts. I think we have a great thing going on this message board.
But you and I are opposite in our view point regarding the way this stock will move. You seem to approach it with treidation. You were writing before this move to 70(if I recall correctly, I may be mistaking you with someone else) that this stock might retest 40's. The stock moved liked crazy to 60's, more trepidation and hesitation, and then the continued move to 70. More trepidation and hesitation lol. I know you are long and strong and I get the need to be cautious in this economic environment, but I believe you are being way too cautious with your outlook here.
UA caters to a more upscale crowd(they typically have decent incomes and jobs) and therefore will be buying no matter the environment. Maybe not as much but they will be buying.
Another thing I believe you are doing(despite the fact that you were here before I was) is that you are greatly underapreciating the shift to the UA brand. It is so strong and hapening so fast, that it is the reason you are seeing the stock fly so strongly and so fast. It is simply reacting to the demand for the product and company.
UA is a comany not spoken about too much as an investment, as the big guys are keeing it under wraps so they can jump in while the price is still relatively cheap.
Once you start hearing about this comany in the media non-stop, you know we've reached suckerville. I am not hearing anything. NFLX is talked about everyday on CNBC as well as apple. Those guys are still flying like crazy. Under Armour has not been given nearly the attention it deserves. One day we will see a random 15% pop up and then we will start getting the attention.
Most eople see under armour being worn. But they are not investors. They don't see the value of the brand from the standpoint of an investor until it is too late.
Actually, I think we are in agreement about the stock price in the long run, it's only the short term where we differ. My thinking about the stock price is colored by the fact that my average cost is about $22 and I saw it run so far so fast that it looks expensive to me. I am cautious and I have been wrong about a correction since about $50. I may sound like the boy who cried wolf but I've watched a lot of these stocks over the years and very few do what UA has just done; 40% straight up without a correction of any significance. Patience can pay off, people were buying this stock in 2007 at 60+ and they thought that it would go straight up forever. I bought their shares from them at $22 when they threw in the towel at the worst possible moment.
I am cautious and generally avoid pulling the trigger unless I view something as undervalued. I try to stick with the old and well-worn Warren Buffett mantra of "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." For me, buying UA at a 50 PE after shooting 40% straight up without correction is something I'm just not wired to do. I still think you will be able to buy in the $50's. If it hits $75 before $55 I'll throw in the towel and stop talking about corrections :)
As far as press coverage is concerned I don't think that there's any conspiracy where the big guys are keeping it quiet. Everybody knows about this company and this stock. I've heard a lot of press coverage about UA in the financial press including a lengthy interview with Kevin Plank during CNBC prime time around the Time of the Auburn game. I've also heard it mentioned on Fast Money and Jim Cramer's show.
For what it's worth I hope you are right in the short term and we keep going straight up without a sharp pullback but I also hope you keep some money in reserve so if we do pullback hard you will be able to take advantage of it rather than being disappointed. A little insurance never hurts.