Much growth ahead -- what is going on now (long post)
This is my second recent posting on this message board, although I have been posting here since back in 2009. It has been a great run of course since then and I called 100 when the stock was much much lower.
We took some profits of course when the stock was in the high 50s but we retained a smaller position. But just this past week, we once again added to the position in the 44s and 45s with the one day drop on Thursday. We fully expect the stock to move back up to the 50s and even make new 52 week highs later this year.
Unlike other stocks UA has never really had a super gangbuster run. The upward movement is always measured and reasonable. The stock price split adjusted high hit around $33 a share in 2007 and now it sits in the mid to high $40s. The high from the past year was slightly north of $60 so when the stock hit around 45 this past Thursday it had fallen around 25 percent for no apparent reason. The growth story is still intact but it fell that much because it had moved to 60 too far too fast. That is no longer true. The opposite became true. It had fallen too far too fast. So in the mid 40s smart money clearly decided to buy up shares big time..... 9 million shares worth. The bounce back on Friday for a gain on the week even was dramatic. Shorty is obviously nervous now going into earnings week... very nervous. Ergo the drumbeat of negativity on the message board. Gene's departure from UA is a non event. He did a good job with the shoes getting good reviews. Just this past week there was an article listing the UA running shoe (Spine RPM) as one of the top ones for 2013. See the following link.
As noted in my prior posting, international growth is apparent. Tottenham is doing great and when I was traveling overseas, I did see a growing UA presence. I think international growth this coming earnings report is going to be a big part of the story. UA will also undoubtedly release other new developments on their growth story which remains in my estimation stronger than ever. We believe that UA is poised for more growth ahead and we believe that the CEO has already telegraphed that this quarter and this coming year will continue to reflect significant UA growth.
The 44-45 was a great buy because the 6% move basically reflected half of a possible move that could come as a result of the upcoming earnings. Essentially taking the risk off the table. Those who bought like yourself were smart. That was smart money because it is now going into earnings with "house money". That admittedly was smart on their part. In hindsight, should have bought back some at that point as well.