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Under Armour, Inc. Message Board

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  • danschnell133 danschnell133 Jan 29, 2013 5:21 PM Flag

    Market YTD 8.5%, UA -.02%

    The reality is we all have a chance to help educate eachother with facts, analysis, fundamentals and some good old fashion homework. There is objective trading both long and short with UA, unfortunately, Indian has never provided anything but his gut instinct and emotional pleas...not surprisingly given his age but I would venture to guess, few ( if any) pay home any real attention and his ability to quickly create a hostile board is disgusting...

    Good luck to everyone! Even you Indian, just shut the #$%$ up.

    Cheers,

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    • lol Oh man, where's the love? I carry you guys on my back for two years and now...the love is gone.

      Baureen, it is not a matter of whether or not I agree with you regarding UA's future growth. I haven't changed my opinion fully on KP, The brand, or even the stock. I have stated that it no longer offers the value it once did and therefore doesn;t offer a margin of safety that implies a superior return.

      See, I think peole on this board are not realizing that the reason you invest is to get the best yield.

      The reason why UA went up so much in value(while I literally screamed it up for two years calling it like yourselves) is because money flocked here from other investments because others saw that UA provided the least to lose and the most to gain(value).

      But as a stock increases in value, a stock becomes more expensive and relative to its earnings, can only offer so much yield going foward because 1) it is bigger and 2) money doesn't rest where it doesn;t get the best yield, money instead leaves unitl significant value is again created.

      I think a lot of people on this board are in love. Literally not weighing risk vs reward anymore if ever. Yes, UA IS GROWING. Nobody said it isn't. But the stock has grown as well and some like myself would say in the short term has outgrown its value.

      So two things usually happen when this occcurs. 1) stock continues on getting more and more "overvalued/exensive" and will eventually get to a point where it falls back down to reality(possibly even surpassing it ala Deckers and Netflix) and the return comes out to nothing or negative over years(ala Deckers and netflix) or 2)the stock stays stagnant while value/earnings catches up or 3) stock goes down hard to meet value.

      People here are ignoring how this works. The market seeks alpha. By doing so, one sees violent moves across all spectrum of stocks day in and day out as a result of all these value seekers.

      Even though I believe UA is a futre 10B/company, the reward would be 100% from here with limited margin of safety as the stock could easily go down to 1.5B(down 80%), hence making this a virtual coin flip. A game of musical chairs at this valuation to earnings.

      You don't like what I have to say, push ignore bro. But I believe it behooves people to be warned about the coin flip UA is at. Maybe not every hour but who cares, I'm generally the only one posting anything. If nobody wants to read what I have to say, they are free to push ignore and visit an invisible board or they can come and hear me scream and shout. But if you decide to stop checking the board, you miss out on nothing as I am the only one generally commenting on anything.

      Z

      • 1 Reply to indian8788
      • Kep in mind you are not talking to just some guy who popped on the board and knows nothing. You are talkin to someone who has called a 200%+ move in UA over the previous 26 months excluding january. I never wavered because I had value on my side and there was nothing better. I was proven correct as the stock outperformed evrything the last two years but several hundred.

        You're talking to a guy who said Netflix was a buy hen nobody wantd it. Who continued to say it was a buy even when it wet down despite the usual hecklers who disappear ;) Now look at Netflix.

        You are not talking to someone who doesn't know value, who han't PROVEN he knows value and I am saying VALUE IS NOT HERE. Doesn't mean we go down. It does mean that there isa better chance of underperforming the market(which the first month of the year already shows). That is it and I called it.

        I will cotinue to call things and share my opinions. You two may not appreciate it but I'm sure others do.

        Z

 
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