Ron Baron is a rather astute investor. We can agree to that. He has rode UA up from the teens along with yours truly and he was invested even long before yours truly. He remains a UA bull and sees bright things from the market generally. He has called for a dow 60,000 in 10 years. That means he is forecasting a 300 percent return GENERALLY in the market. So where would UA if it just went up 300 percent in 10 years... UA would be at $240 per share.
Now if you believe like me that by then UA will be roughly equal to NKE in market cap by then... what will UA be at that point. NKE's current market cap is 56 billion. I think NKE will underperform over the next 10 years but it will still appreciate. I would estimate by at least 50 percent. So conservatively, NKE will be around an 80 billion market cap by then. UA which will be NKE's equal by then, will also "sport" a market cap which will approach $80 billion. Thus from current levels UA will conservatively be a 10 bagger (as opposed to the general market which will "only" be a three bagger. Ron Baron knows this. I know this. And that is why folks, you want to buy now. In 10 years using this calculus, UA will be trading over $600 per share and that is a conservative estimate.
Just as there is room for two great American Cola companies (KO and Pep), there is room for two great athlete centered sports apparel/shoe companies.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have been posting on these here message boards since 1999. There are several great investors that have served as "teachers" of influence. I have respected Baron for his acumen with respect to UA and I have previously cited his investment in MANU as a major reason why I decided to take a position. I did also report that I had liked MANU since the ipo but that learning about Baron's investment, convinced me to pull the trigger. Other great investors who have influenced me in the past include Laszlo Birinyi and Al Frank (the original prudent speculator). I also come from the school of invest in what you know so I suppose Peter Lynch is a teacher but I do not recall ever specifically reading anything by him - I just know that is his mantra. I also give credit to the original Motley Fool website who back in late 90s encouraged average joes such as yours truly to invest on your own. And yes, I have never claimed to be anything more than an average joe. I am a much richer average joe now of course. I think it bothers the professionals that average joes can succeed but honestly that is what I have done. And yes, I know I have fans that have followed my postings over the years which combine humor, sarcasm, cheerleading, with a smattering of brilliant prose from time to time. My fans know who they are. You do not have to be one of them. Besides MANU, I am currently building a position in DNKN (i do believe in dollar cost averaging); given their expansion to the west coast, we really like dunkin for the long haul (which is how we invest here at DocUFOOD advisors hahaha). Best to one and all, even the haters.
yours, doc ufood
thanks for your resume,.. We do share in dollar cost averaging, I use drips on all but on of my long term investments.. it supplies the discipline to dollar cost averaging, and takes teh day to day emotions out..
When UA provides a drip (which will happen sooner the later) I will transfer my shares gladly, and set on auto pilot..
One can print out every single one of your posts and see that each one is basically a repeating of the same thing, OVER AND OVER AND OVER again. So I have no idea what brilliant prose it is you speak of.
As someone who remembers all your posts of basic nothingness, it is "I'm here at wrigley field again, lots of northface some under armour, more under armour than last year.
Then, "here at wrigley field again, some north face, less than last year, more under armour"
Then, "running the 5k, UA should set up a stand and talk to their customers about their footwear, Under armour apparel, not much footwear"
Followed by "Running the 5k again, UA, you should really work on your footwear"(no $$$$)
Followed by "UFOOD thinks 100. Valuation? What is valuation"(lol)
There is nothing to be a fan of. Their is no subjective analysis.
You can;t explain to me how UA is somehow magically going to take 13-14B in reveneues from Nike and Adidas. Nor can KP.
what are they going to say to the international market? Look, we know its the same product but we want you to pay more for it because its newer and "we innovate"(but really don;t).
C'mon. Enough. The stock had a story for why it was undervalued. 30 months later we got a reward but the story of footwear and international is non-existent. It is broken and at level 1.
sometimes you have to see things long term. most traders do not see things from a longitudinal level.
UA is now NKE's rival on a domestic level and internationally that will be developing over the next few years. It is inevitable (unless NKE buys UA out for say $20 billion with the current CEO taking on a big role in the combined company). The more likely scenario long term is that the UA-NKE rivalry will be similar to the PEP-KO rivalry. Both companies can and will succeed. But the better long term play will be UA. Not to be morbid... but domestically.... every day there is a baby born who will more likely be wearing the UA symbol and every day someone dies who was previously donning the swoosh. The swoosh is no longer the symbol of choice in the states.
As most of my fans know, i have been posting on these here message boards for years and years. My strength is that i see things before others do. I knew that UA was undervalued when it was in single digits. i knew that Apple was undervalued in single digits. i knew that Pixar was undervalued before the Disney buyout. I knew Lions Gate was undervalued around the time it was trading in the low teens. My fans always ask me what do you like now UFOOD. What do you see? Besides UA, What UFood especially likes now is MANU-- folks as a long term play. Very thinly traded but long term the sky is the limit.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Under Armour is obviously growing fast, but I still see more kid's wearing Nike gear than Under Armour. Adidas will most likely become more irrelevant in the United States for years to come.
I am not saying UA cannot take market share internationally or with footwear. But you are ow factoring in valuation and risk. You are not being paid with a 6.4B valution for a company with no international sales for YEARS to somewhow come in and tackle new international markets and do any significant damage.
I now believe people can live without UA as I can. This is what a FAD looks like quite honestly. There is no difference between a UA product and its competitors; NONE.
KP keeps talking about innovation because he knows the street loves it but nothing really astonishingly done. So hold the phone. Your betting on hope at this valuation. The market rewarded you and me for the growth in the states.
The only way I see this stock going higher is not from fundamentals that you think will be proven correct. But it will be GAMED on on hope like you keep espousing. But one day, people will realize the valuation is ridiculous and nothing supports it and the stock will erase those months or years of stock appreciation, becoming dead money.
Take a look at ISRG. Top in its industry. Grew for two years from 370 to 590 3 months ago. Stock now at 370. Growth epectations RIDICULOUS, valuation was already pricing in the growth two years ago.
I was called a cheerleader. But this is just blind cheerleading as pretending 1 company that has 13B in inernational sales and another company which has accomplished ALMOST nothing internationally will somehow have the same value in 3650 days from now.
This is what I mean when I state two people on a message board are not of equal intelligence. Sure, anybody can be heard. But it is clear some are rational and can make sense and some can't. Even when I was bullish 30 months ago when footwear and international looked like progress would be made, I couldn't see more than a 15-20B valuation.
But now I see how much harder thing actually hard to accomplish and I'm just not going to pay for that risk at this price.
Again, GREAT US company. But pricey valuation, not cheap.