A new analysis from iSuppli forecasts that the price of polysilicon will begin a "precipitous plunge in 2009 after peaking this year," as the supply of the raw material exceeds demand. At fault, according to the research firm, are "fundamental imbalances in the solar supply chain."
My view for 2009 is this is very good for LDK. The 2009 wafer "price" is already contractually set. So if the price of poly nosedives then LDK's profits skyrocket and their margins increase to the 40%+ to 50% IMO.
I expect that the multi-year contracts have a "renegotiation" of price clause every year or so. This protects both the producer and customer (e.g., the price of poly goes to $10,000/kg or price for solar panels goes to $.10)