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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • mrsetion mrsetion Dec 8, 2011 5:20 PM Flag

    Trying to IPO a poly plant that

    produces poly at $38/kg when the market price in China is $25. Deal of the year if they can pull it off. But anyway, nice to see the shorts get raped.

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    • Well Trina just guided $0.50 or below processing end of 2012 and are at $0.58 today.

      Headed to my $0.45 target likely a half year early.

    • bumpers for posterity sake

    • Targets dude

      Learn what are variable costs vs fixed costs. The fixed cost is x MT of TCS and Y amount of energy to run the reactor.

      The variables are depreciation that has twice the cost at 50% utilization.

      Then there are plant operation energy costs outside of the reactore energy costs. These run fork lifts, lights, heating cooling computer systems etc that make the plant go. This is relatively constant regardless of the amount of Poly made. At 50% utilization, your at twice the costs.

      LDK is at 50% of total capacity at 3KMT a quarter. That puts the $8 depreciation at $16/kg and the $3.50 baseline energy consumption per kg at $7. $23 in variable costs get added to $4.90 in TCS costs and $4.20 in reactor costs for a total of what appx $32/kg.

      What did they say costs were last Q?

      analysis, learn to educate yourself to estimate costs if your going to invest in solars.

      As for SOL, it all depends on what the energy costs are wether it is like the $0.12 that GCL is quoting or the $0.07 that LDK has in the 20F. It also depends on the amounts of internal TCS.

      Most all should be able to achieve a cash cost of around $13/kg or less if everyone produces their own TCS and has energy at $0.07 or less.

      Remember, I speak of 100% utilization being cash costs vs current production costs.

    • "3: GCL has implied costs of $16/kg with $3/kg depreciation. That is a cash cost of $13/kg.

      4: SOL has implied with 11MT costs of $20/kg. Current depreciation is $8/kg future 5MT is at $3/kg. (15+24)/8 = 4.8/kg = $15.2/kg cash cost."

      By saying that LDK will have a cash cost of $11-14/kg is true when GCL with 62000MT and a production cost of $19/kg(if $3 is depreciaction) leavs cash cost at $16/kg.

      SOL i saying their new 6000MT with 150million capex will produce at $20/kg will leave a cash cost of $17,5/kg.

      This is how right you been so far.

    • Yes these targets are now starting to be confirmed.

    • Author worked for REC, before he became a VP of Technology for GCL.

    • oddan, snake
      check this link and the presentation , it shows that FBR is hands down the best technology to produce polysilicon for the cost

    • And by the way, about that GT CVD reactor. 50kWH is very good but then you need the Trichlorosilane or Silane to feed the reacators and they also need energy.
      Im no expert but I dont think that energy cost is accounted for, or?

    • Yes I know SG&A is not included in cash cost. But that figure gives u a hint becuase SG&A cant stand for 50% of that total cost. I dont think SG&A cost of the chinese is higher the REC SG&A cost which is about $4/kg.

      I think that we can be sure that GCL has the lowest cost in the figure in page 15 and that is around 25/kg. We know GCL have a production cost of about 21-22/kg that leaves 3-4/kg for SG&A. Meaning their cash cost is 21-22/kg if this guy at Credit Suisse research is right.

      As the article is based on REC FBR plant when ramping for over 2 years ago alot have change. With scale comes benefits. Plant wasent even working at satisfying levels and the new silane plant with additionals silane that would feed the reactors wasent even build yet. So I dont trust much of the facts that are in that article.

      Its like digging up an older GT refrence and ignore the new one u just gave.

    • Oddan

      Thanks for the reference materials. The REC includes SG&A. That is acutally outside of cash cost to produce. Do you have any idea what that is as a raw dollar value?

      The FBR reactor is lower in energy use. 18Kwhr is about in line with comments what I have heard. However newer Siemens reactors can achive 50kwhr/kg according to GT. That is only 30kwhr or $2.10 at LDK stated costs of 7 cents per KWhr.

      The article I reference made notes of lower reactor costs for FBR as well as some raw material costs, however a plant has far more than just a reactor that adds to costs as noted in the article. And yest hte article is 2 years old but not much has changed outside of costs of reactors.

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