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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • diamondinderuff diamondinderuff May 2, 2012 1:48 AM Flag

    LDK & APPL

    They use downturn to upgrade their technologies. The way AAPL beat DELL and everybody else in the smartphone industry, is by innovating and upgrading their technologies ahead of competitions, especially during the downturn when everybody is cutting back in R&D they push ahead. LDK is using this slow time to upgrade their factory to M2 technology that has higher efficiency, which everybody wants, because it reduce cost per watt.

    I like the long term strategy. And in the short term, guided only $200M means they lose less money while they upgrade their factories so that they can improve their profit margins (higher efficiency and lower cost structure) and ship higher volume later. Wacker already booked out until 2015, so LDK will ramp up to 50 KMT by then. LDK said their projects have very good profit margins, which all will be completed in 2H and that is another reason why most of the revenue will be realized in the 2H2012. 80% or more competitions will be out of business by then, so customers know and they are booking with leaders which why Wacker are all booked. Nobody want to do business with a company that will be closed tomorrow. So any company that survive and has leading and new technologies will be big winner later in 2012 and beyond. I feel very comfortable with their ultra conservative and smart guidance. They guided Q1 only $210M and said in the cc that 70% of their 2.0B - 2.7B for 2012 will come in the 2H, which only 30% in the 1H. Since Q1 is about $200M means:

    Q1 = $200M
    Q2 = $450
    2H = $1700 means
    Q3 = $700M
    Q4 = $1,000M

    Best of luck everybody...these are the ones I see survive and become leaders: LDK, STP, YGE, TSL, SPWR, and maybe JKS and SOL

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