Good to hear from you, ducpho. Hope you and yours are doing well.
I no longer have a financial interest here, having sold what little remained of my LDK position in the pre-market on 17 September (entered the order during the CC, in fact).
For the time being, my vote is "nothing" with respect to LDK. To get me interested in buying in again, at minimum they'd need to 1) satisfy me that they can generate cash flow by actually selling product, rather than piecemeal assets of the company, and, of course, receiving carloads of cash from the Xinyu city government; 2) get solidly above a $1.00 share price.
To all those interested...
Using Pips numbers quote "Phree lost 99.9% on LDK" to which I still cannot find any point where LDK was $100.00/shr - my one share (not really) is not worth selling due to commission fees.
For those wondering mores-so about my allocations - if money is a bet, LDK has less than 5% of the portfolio risk.
This is certainly not a recommendation good or bad of any sort.
It seems clear to me that Xinyu is supporting while China is building demand to support Solar. I am not expecting LDK to disappear. I expect they will have a life line to run as long as possible until the market comes back which seems to me requires non-china cos to fold up shop. That said, it takes more than just survival to become a stellar stock. It takes profit. That requires supply and demand re-balance.
While we ride the pony in hopes for another day - our day to come, we also wait for the following:
Financial Cliff and very likely this will not be agreed to in the next month. While this unfolds, the media is expected to broadcast doom and gloom as it looms where in the market is not likely to boom back to life. Consequently, I see general drift downward in the market.
As the clock ticks, technology gets better and I fear the geometric diode and nantenna's could be as easy to fabricate as retrofitting a DVD burner to utilize an x-ray laser. (China-S2 may be able to translate how this may be accomplished - search on nantennas and geometric diodes, then think small scale and figure out the wavelenghth needed for etching)
If this is not successful, black silicon is still in play - with it licensed to I believe a company in Italy by NREL itself.
The latter could generate some demand for poly, the former would obsolete LDK's and all solar companies as "outdated technology". It is not likely that will happen for quite a while either.
At this point, risk with the more immediate concern as fiscal cliff tends to make me believe than any gain here will be eradicated by a slow drop in the DOW. I am not intending on buyng anything until end of year sell offs and DOW 12200 strike. I think the Republican's know they will come under fire and more scrutany if the Cliff issue is not worked out. So it is a matter of timing.
Numbers are something like this:
The rest are FTR, DOW, HBAN, LDK.
The 50% is for Christmas shopping.
One more point... It seems to me that an investment of 100K in a solar installation with 30% Fed Credit which includes that part that is land and the installation costs will return quite a bit if one wants to create their own LLC (which limits liability) and goes and becomes a contractor to install their own solar. You see, you can pay yourself whatever off the business plus write off depreciation. After 7 years with the system having paid itself off, you can sell it to your retail self for a buck.
Now if only I could find my "Momma's Backyard" - another Pip remark in bad taste. Both my Mom and Step Mom have passed.
In more general terms, the question of what is more valuable - the Chicken that lays the golden egg or the golden egg itself is answered. Today, it is the golden egg. The value placed on the Chicken and the egg is related to the law of supply and demand, or in this case, ROI.
It would seem to me that some fancy banker would start financing these systems and if the return pans out as expected, work to bring together investment+SOPW like contractors and provide a Strategic Solar Investment Fund (SSIF), skimming a nice little return for running it.
It is generally when I am less than enthusiastic, that something big happens. I still wait for consolidation. At these levels, cash injection even from non-solar cos. is possible.
I guess Pip should be concerned - I wait for the $100.00 break even according to his numbers - meaning I'll hold.
I shall likely hold for an eternity just so I have an incentive to come to this board periodically.
I've been holding. No reason to let go now.
LDK and solars are a high risk.
My thoughts have always been that if LDK could leverage its size, it could compete well with GCL and anyone else. At this time, there are too many competitors and oversupply.
Until China does something about the overproduction, it remains high risk.
I do not own LDK any more...got some on SOPW tho...
I am not planning to get into LDK any time soon. I may buy some options...if I really feel like opening a position.
***Just my thoughts***