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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • phreecash phreecash Jan 5, 2013 10:09 PM Flag

    There exists....

    Solar stocks receiving attention from investors.
    They get clicks in Yahoo, and are shown on the Summary Page.

    Come on' - You know what I am talking about.

    People viewing LDK also viewed: YGE FSLR STP TSL JASO SOL

    One of these stocks does not belong. It does not sell silicon based cells.
    Please substitute FSLR with LDK such that you have:

    YGE LDK STP TSL JASO SOL

    For each of these stocks, write down Market Cap in Billions (The number is a decimal)
    Save the list.

    Now, go to Finviz and calculate:
    [(0.12 x P/S) + (-0.12 x P/B) + (0.46 x P/C) + (-0.26 x NetMargin)] x 1,000,000,000

    for each on the list

    I don't care which stock you pick in the group [YGE LDK STP TSL JASO SOL], do them all if you like

    These numbers are coefficients and they tell us just how whacked out investors are on valuing these stocks and represent how investors "feel" as a consensus about these stocks.

    As "magic" as these numbers appear, they are fact. Some interesting things come to light. I see the largest coefficient is cash, but at the same time, you penalize book value. You barely count sales as something formidable to worry about while similarily crediting negative margins (because a negative x negative accounts for a positive)

    I assume you would sell a new car for half the value, throwing cash in the car and only raising the value of the car by have the money tossed in the car, then telling the buyer that dispite the horrible gas mileage, it is a feature.

    I plainly see that you all listened to shorts for years. Only recently, you your dismay - you see them covering and taking advantage of their lies. How many of you feel cheated?

    I would observe that valuations have been insainly cheap for some time and a couple bucks off the bottom is but a drop in the bucket. High in the 70's, low at 1/100th that high with a lot more capacity at a time when China will need it.

    I got a feeling it will go North for a while. The coefficients are rounded, so forgive me if there is suble discrempencies.

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    • Shorts lied? That's hilarious. Stock goes from ~$30-40 in 2008 all the way to $1 last month and he has the audacity to say the shorts LIED, I'm guessing he did this because the Chinese Govt just now decided to plan the domestic economy in a manner that keeps LDK from bankrupting after they've been digging their own financial grave for years.

      The shorts haven't lied, the performance of LDK (both the company and the stock) has been a disaster.

      You on the other hand fail every step of the way to realize you were wrong on this. If it wasn't a lie it was just an epic failure, lasting for years.

      For the record, I did my own share of failing here - I held the bag from ~$40 to $10.8, got out at a tremendous loss. I ended up checking this board every so often to see if I could post "LDK five dolla" as a joke, it became sort of pointless when I realized the longs would kill for a chance to sell at five dolla again. :D

      • 2 Replies to l_yoni
      • Thank you for your candid feelings.

        Most of what I posted, was sabotoged by:

        1) FIT cuts in Italy
        2) USA import Tariffs
        3) Reduction in Demand (above)
        4) Over Capacity
        5) Global Recession

        It seemed that every time the industry was to turn for the better, something negative happened to contridict projections.

        The effect thereof was your perception of "Shorts" getting it right. But they got it right because of those same unforseen events working to their favor.

        The difference here is what is seen ahead of us. I won't give my mantra of China 2015 targets or ASP increases.

        Instead I propose that the negativity pushed solars so low with investors expecting bankrupcy, than now it seems that will not be the case.

        There are two outcomes... I'm right this time, or wrong.

        It is not that I suggest you look at historical references. Instead, I suggest you "roll the coefficients" and determine how they are so out of whack. My conclusion is that investors pushed solars (not just LDK) so low, they are priced right for buy in.

        So I post this now and the stock is headed up ~7%/day, and somehow I am wrong?

        Fair enough... But with that said, explain why the coefficients are so "whacked" out of reasonable territory.

        Even Better - Forget I said anything and answer this... "Why is the entire solar moving up in China?" "Why are solar stocks yielding 7% per day?"

        I have observed China appears to have opened up access to the State grid and that means PV projects have an interstate system by which to sell excess. There are a lot of people in China, hungry for a buck or two. There is a propensity for things to move very fast in China once they allow it.

      • time may have changed my friend :-) we had the worst recession for a century. what do you expect? now that we have reached parity solar will be infavour but not just for a couple of weeks or months, for @least a decade. btw i picked some bottoms & will keep these shares closed in a safe till 2015. the winners/survivers could be a 100bagger from 2day.

        Sentiment: Buy