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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • chriszhou666@gmail.com chriszhou666 Mar 18, 2013 2:00 PM Flag

    question: who is going to be the survivor?

    i am looking for a survivor to invest. among the bunch: yge, tsl, stp, ldk, jks......, who is the most likely survivor? any opinion is welcome, thank you.

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    • YGE, LDK & JASO (LDK stock to pare losses today)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • At the moment, it would appear that STP's prospects are much reduced, but I'd be hesitant to call them "dead" until we see the obituary. I think every company in the sector is "distressed" to one degree or another right now, and the possibility of Chinese local government intervention for one or more of them makes it difficult to know just how susceptible each might be to failure. I'd offer one or two other things to consider.

      We tend to focus on the "China Eleven" (CSIQ, CSUN, DQ, HSOL, JASO, JKS, LDK, SOL, STP, TSL, & YGE) because those are the issuers that area available for trading here in the U.S.. That group by no means represents the entire universe of Chinese companies in the sector, however.

      The ITC specifically listed 52 Chinese producers of cells or modules in last year's tariff decision. That list didn't include DQ or SOL, nor did it include other manufacturers in the sector such as GCL-Poly Energy (3800, Hong Kong), Shanghai Chaori Solar Science & Technology (002506, Shenzhen), or Hareon Solar (600401, Shanghai).

      Some of these are undoubtedly small players, but others, notably GCL, are huge. Any analysis of prospects for the "China Eleven" that fails to consider the others is likely to yield a tenuous result, at best.

      • 1 Reply to china_s2
      • STP prospects reduced, at a time when ASP's are rebounding offer increased odds and value for LDK. Ironic the investors see it otherwise. How do I sum this up?

        I don't have the exact numbers for STP, but approximately 2 GW capacity of over capacity is likely to be unplugged with ASP rebounding suggesting the market was already coming into balance.

    • Don't know about the China firms but I think Wacker Chimie WCH.DE is probably the safest play on solar out there.

 

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