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Oasis Petroleum Inc. Message Board

  • crapshooter2007 crapshooter2007 Aug 28, 2013 3:49 PM Flag

    How much can OAS profit

    What sort of gain can OAS get with 37 wells awaiting completion in 3QTR and OIL at 109. Can all this new production get better than $91.15 in 2QTR. Any estimates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I spent a lot of time researching OAS last night, and came up with earnings for Q3 of 91 cents. Without going into all the calculations, I am projecting production of 33k boed, a slightly higher differential, WTI averaging 104-105 for the quarter, and similar expenses per barrel of production. I have revenue at $286mm. The new, unhedged production and the favorably hedged production should get around $100/bbl.

      We do not get enough info to make exact calculations, and I tried to be conservative. If they exceed management guidance, they could get to $1.00. If WTI immediately plunges to 95 and stays there, my estimate would drop to 85 cents. Regardless, the analysts are way off. Hedges are the key. Thus far this quarter, OAS is getting the benefit of high crude prices for well over half of their crude production, and the "bad" hedges are still nicely profitable.

 
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