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USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Message Board

  • skyview10 skyview10 Oct 7, 2008 10:42 AM Flag

    Fund Volatility

    I want to believe that management of this fund is competent, but why isn't the fund doing better? Can a knowledgeable person reassure me?

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    • This fund is a non diversified fund comprised of precious metals mining companies. USAA warns that it is a highly speculative volatile fund. Given those parameters, it cannot guarantee non stop continuous growth through all market conditions. Do your homework and use it appropriately. IT IS NOT DESIGNED FOR DAY TRADING. If you bail now you may just be selling low to watch it rally to a high as it seems we may very well be heading into a recessionary, inflationary period where gold will see unprecedented value growth. If this were easy , everyone could do it. If you want predictable low volatility, this aint the right place to be and it should never be the majority of your portfolio.

    • There is alot of Volatility with the Dollar and Commodity Markets. When the dollar weakens gold strengthens. Expect the dollar to weaken more due to interest rate cuts by the fed and more government intervention in the markets. The dollar will weaken dramatically causing gold to skyrocket. Expect gold to double within the next year.

    • I compared USAGX to some other gold funds like Fideliy FSAGX and I found that all of them are down. From what I can see the problem lies with the international stock markets. Many of the gold mines are in developing countries and their markets have really been pounded down bad. Hence the stock in USAGX and most other gold funds are all down by the same corresponding amounts in contrast to bullion which is going up. There is also probably a hesitancy on the big investors part to buy/sell gold shares and just deal with bullion in the futures market where the valuation is simple.
      If gold bullion is able to sustain its price and the stock markets settle down then I think the stocks in gold mining companies will eventually take off once investors start seeing the potential for steady earnings. So gold stock owners seem to be getting burned along with everyone else right now. The place to be at this point in time is bullion. But these things have a habit of reversing.

    • First of all, USAGX is composed of stocks, and went down with the general market. However, it did not lose nearly as much due to the fact that PMs gained quite a bit.

      Second, don't listen to, or subscribe to, online "experts". Anyone who did so should be asking for their money back, as they haven't been any better than you at timing this market. Do your own research, and invest on that basis. We are far more fortunate today at the quantity of free information sources via the Internet than existed, for example, 25 years ago.

      It is possible that there may be further small losses in USAGX. The reason is that tomorrow, and maybe for a couple more days the market will go up. Whenever this happens buying tends to go into funds and stocks other than those in the USAGX portfolio, i. e., PM mining companies.

    • cooper and silver was down today. What I find interesting - oil went up and presious metals or this fund went down. This fund has been following oil for two or three months. Perhaps a bottom has been found. And speaking about oil - a first in a long time - if the markets are up, oil is up. Markets go down, oil went down. Today, market was down, but oil went up. Nevertheless, I hope we get our div in December and buying more shares at a discount. Actually everything is on sale and what do people do - they run for the hills. Not me! I just buy more - so what if it takes a year or 3 years - it is not the end of the world.

    • I am as puzzled as you are. Gold went up amidst the carnage today but the fund goes down.I would like some kind of explanation from the management.

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