Greatly enjoy your posts.
If we see the crash scenario as you depict, I doubt whether USAGX/USAA will remain viable. I am DCA into USAGX and USHYX (just in case we do not go back to the caves too soon), but I am buying cans of stew with money that I would have used to buy physical gold.
I read a post somewhere that a person was buying gold so they could use it with which to "trade". If it comes to that, I would not sell one can of stew for one gold eagle. I can't eat gold.
If it came to that, one can of stew would quickly cost 2 gold eagles, etc.
Keep your posts coming!
I believe my 'rosy prediction' will begin in the fall of 2013 and despite false media hyped 'recoveries' it continue to worsen until the bottom is reached in 2015. From there we will have 'dead cat bounces' until the year 2020. The real recovery will become noticeable around the year 2022. I suspect that the whole global scenario will be very, very different in just 10 more years. I doubt gold & PM mining shares will be panaceas.....just that they will be the least worst of all the others. However, I hope to get back into the broad stock market around 2017 or so and ride the train up from the bottom.
jp7 said, "Precisely what is you definition of "crash"?" I envision a crash as a period where normal commerce credit breaks down, import prices climb significantly due as the 'petro-dollar' system is abandoned, multi-city riots as federal aid disappears, large increases in unemployment as the economy contracts, widescale defaults on municipal and gov't pension obligations & a general loss of business confidence. USAGX is diversified w/investments in multiple countries which are producing a product-PM's-for which there will always be a demand no matter what. Yet everone will still end up losing. Per Richard Russell, 'During a depression the person who loses the least is the winner.'
Precisely what is you definition of "crash"?
Very high taxes with very high unemployment with very high interest rates and very high inflation occurring simultaneously isn't necessarily a "crash".
We may get some good old fashion 1968-1969 turmoil in the streets, but "crash"...not likely.
The metals may be a good place to position as a hedge against the upcoming loss of standard of living, but if "twinky eater" has shown us anything it's not to count on the miners.
USAGX probably isn't the best place to be in the event of your "crash" scenario.
I saw these figures on Zero Hedge with regards to the projected trillion dollar milestones to our national debt. With regards to bullion and USAGX......all I have to do is stay the course & chill out. The tidal wave of debt will soon crash the system.
$16 trillion on August 28, 2012
$17 trillion on June 10, 2013;
$18 trillion on March 23, 2014;
$19 trillion on January 3, 2015; and
$20 trillion on October 16, 2015
I think the markets determine the time when corrections will & should end. A likely end pt. is if the Fed announces a QE3. PM's are an investment but by no means the ONLY investment in my portfolio. I would be happy to see silver drop back to $10/oz & gold to $500/oz as I could buy up even more on the cheap KNOWING THAT THE LONG TERM TREND is up no matter what. But a lot of people can not stomach the ups & downs such as we are seeing now. We could be in a bear market for PM's all summer. Only invest amounts that you are comfortable with which are within time frames which you can sleep with & then you do not have to sit there demanding that the market listen to your pleas for mercy. There is no preponderance of bad economic news out there so gold will continue to drop.