Global economy declinings. OIL Demands falling,, inventories rising....market manipulation seems to have put CVX profits and efforts to decline in near future. Hedge funds looking for final rise before shorting this stock into the ground.
Sold profits. Looking to short..
See article Oil to Fall to $72 By 2013 and U.S. Gas Prices Have Peaked: DB’s Sankey on yahoo's chevron home page
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Would $72 be such a bad number? Seems like consumers would love the lower prices and producers could live with the margin of profit. Honestly seems like a long term all around price level the world could sustain.
Todays news they said that
"Wednesday morning's release of crude oil inventories form the Department of Energy showed a stronger than expected build in stockpiles (2.86 mln vs 1.5 mln).Crudevoil inventories are in the middle of their seasonal autumn increase, but this year the increase is beginning from what are record inventory levels for this time of year. Going back to 1984, there has not been a single year where crude oil inventories were as high in the current week as they are now.
With demand down and inventories up this thing is going to snap and could get ugly!
Perhaps it is starting this week....market has been popped up pretty good...and market is looking shakey and about to U turn. Less than a week from the anniversary of black friday. I have my retirement in the G fund....waiting for the large pullback, perhaps next year before I reallocate into stocks...
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Irish: Don't think so homey. Dollar denomintated barrels will reflect the current never ending debasement of our currency. Nice way to say that as the dollar becomes the peso, it will take more to buy a barrel. Also, OPEC still has the wherewithal to squeeze 800-1000mbd out of the system to support prices. Don't think they won't if the price drops below $85? Please tell me you are not putting on trades based on DB what's his name. You might also want to consider this: 60% of the gasoline sold is sold to the top 20% wage earners (they don't feel the pain so much). The U.S. is long ultra low sulfur diesel, but has a line of customers in Europe and Asia willing to pay a premium to the U.S. Finally remember a few years back when oil prices took a belly flop? Do you remember how CVX's downstream did? Big moves down usually mean bigger margins for refiners than when crude spikes up. Retail prices become inelastic on the high side, but the crack spread really smiles on refiners on the way down. Hey I could be wrong, but I don't thinks so. My guess is just the usual summer to winter retail dump before higher nat gas and winter fuel oil prices kick in. Good luck on that short position DB touted. I would put a tight stop on that short position if I were you.
Ontogeny: I respect your your hedges, but I ask are you a very long term investor, or a short-term investor/trader? If you want to invest don't you believe that there will be a near term pullback in which you can in fact get in much lower.
If your answer is that you are investor...that is fine wait years or so to try to get into the 120's, I originally owned cvx from about 76 to 103 sometime ago, I made a fair profit. Keeping a stock just for dividends isn't exciting and isn't going to make me money or wealthy. I then made more money trading. I have and will profit over and over and over again as this trades in predictable channels.
What realistic reasons has this company traded higher in simplier terms.
1) EVERYTHING in the market has gone higher because of the addition of CRACK to the addicted wallstreet aka QE3. Chevron had run because of the short covering after the easing.
2) Market manipulation and the fear of IRAN going to war with the United States and ISREAL effecting the oil supplies. HO hum..common scare tactic that amounts to nothing.
Some realistic facts once the drug high has settled among euphoric investors:
1. People on the federal board have said that addition of QE funds which only goes only the next couple months will do little for the economy. So what is the point? It seems to be as a political move and will end after Obama's election.
2. ISRAEL will not attack the United States without the support of the United States, and no president will dare enter a war just prior to election. That is why Obama hasn't met with the ISRAEL prime minister. He doesn't want to make people think he supports their threats.
3. CNBC and Cramer pumped this and i believe it was a quick trade on the upside. I did too! I got sold because I don't wish to catch a falling knife. Pullbacks are faster and harder more than the upside. The vix index is increasing. Check out stockwits and market pulse charts. One guy individual chartiq posted a chart that I have seen show the weekly chart is weakening and growing tired and will not last much longer. 108 pullback is imminent...with earnings possibly failing perhaps down to 90.00
4. Given all the recent settlements, issues in brazil, EPA investigations, refinery shutdowns in California and banned drillings of current operations I would fear owning into earnings.
5. Market pullback is expected after 29th going into October.
If you REALLY like Chevron Id look to buy it much cheaper, and am willing to continue to take the risk of a short. I certainly think right now there is far better oil/energy plays that have greater potential for momentum in the future. Id be staging for shorts or positioning for cash right now.
Remember one can spout how cheap any company is based on, fundamentals and etc...stocks move most on FEAR. Not everybody can be right and make money. It is nice when the small guys gets in ahead of the computers, market manipulators. The U turn IS coming.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I dont see new investors entering the market now or going forward.
I wouldnt want to buy near all time highs when demand is decreasing, inventories are increasing and prospect oil is going to plummet. there are rumors of a flash crash in oil with the manipulation and the bubble is going to send oil and market downward.
nothing is going to happen in the middle east as always.
short covering is why chevron was higher from QE3. look for this to fall now and big pullback near month end after 29th based on analysts
Sentiment: Strong Sell