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Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. Message Board

  • gehcpa2000 gehcpa2000 Jan 20, 2004 6:39 PM Flag

    Looking Tired

    Ozrk is making a double top. PE is stretched, relative strength is declining.

    I am about to pull the plug, earnings did not seem to give it a lift and it is going back to its 50dma.

    Anyone out there have a different slant.

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    • First, what is it's 50 day moving average? I'm not a chartist, but I would be interested in adding to my position.

      Second, it depends on your investment objectives. I am *strictly* a LTB&H type. Without using a calculator, my shares have appreciated more than 20%, excluding dividends, since I picked them up this past summer. I consider this a great return on a bank stock. To sell now, I'd get stuck paying tax on short term capital gains. Maybe OZRK is just sitting right now, but I'm content to wait.

      When people like you talk about getting out of a stock here at Yahoo!, it really makes me think Yahoo! should add a feature whereby people can disclose their investment strategy, not merely "Long-Term Sentiment Disclosure." This would make it easier for readers to have the background context behind a person's posting about selling (or buying). Different people, different objectives and strategies, which are not necessarily obvious in a posting [no criticism intended by any means, this holds for everyone not playing games]. It's difficult to properly address a person's questions at times (like now) without knowing the person's approach to investing.

      BTW, did you read that the dividend was increased from 0.65 to 0.07 yesterday?

      BTW2: Can you recommend a good book to learn about how to read/generate charts? I'd rather read a book on this than go to web sites--my idea of reading in bed (where a book rather than notebook is preferred).

      • 2 Replies to ngari
      • Ngari, you didn't specifically reply to my post, but I can give you my perspective.

        I am a combination of mid-term buy & hold, and somewhat short term trading. So, I rely on a combination of fundamental analysis and some charting. To answer your question about learning about charts, I got my start with "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil who also publishes Investor's Business Daily. After that, I subscribed to the paper. I'm not a commercial for the system, but I found the biggest problem with my results was not having a system, and not sticking to a system, so I decided, I'll to try this system and make a concerted effort to be disciplined about it.

        I am by no means an expert chart-reader or investor, but I will note that I first became aware of OZRK roughly a year ago because it's chart was featured in IBD several times. I didn't have money at the time, but I kept tracking it - when I bought in, I sold yesterday with a 31% gain in about 7 or 8 months - don't remember when I bought it (this trading is in my IRA, so I'm not worried about cap gains taxes). Overall, I had about a 45% gain in my overall portfolio last year - a lot due to the market going up - but a good part due to buying stocks based on a combination of their chart and their fundamentals, and selling losers quickly.

        I think that OZRK's consistency of performance is really notable, and I think I'll reinvest later. In the meantime, we are in the midst of a broad rally, with lots of stocks beginning new moves that fit into the IBD/O'Neil system (called CAN SLIM), so I've moved my money into one of those for now and will probably come back to OZRK when the overall market slows down during which time, OZRK will probably out-perform again.

        Hope some of that is useful to you. Good investing.

      • I also am a long termer and have looked at a ton of smaller banks and compared them to OZRK and have only found one that is better than OZRk over the last three years. At a PE of under 20 with the OZRK's last 12 Q's this is good for another double in two years. IMHO, it's a keeper until the next split.

        Anytime I can get a 4 bagger in five years time I'll jump at it.

    • I tend to agree for the moment. I really like the fundamentals of the company, but for now, I sold my shares today (all 300 of them) to reinvest in some higher growth areas for the near term. OZRK is a very consistent performer though, and I'm sure I'll be back.

      Good luck - I'll be watching from the sidelines for a while.

 
OZRK
62.48-0.51(-0.81%)11:32 AMEDT

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