The low of the high-volume April 3rd plunge off the top is 41.68. Wednesday's (Apr 24th) high was 41.53. So what do they do today? They gapped it above 41.68 and opened it at 41.79. They know that the low of April 3rd would be resistance, so they just gapped it above that price and are now selling their inventory at a higher price to unsuspecting marks. The marks don't want to miss out on the next bull run.....the big operator's know their psychology. But the volume is low; still dying on the vine. There is a lack of demand. And with supply in the background; April 3rd, 11th, and 12th, it is demand that has to prove itself before this can be considered a buy. Sadly demand is not proving itself. It is being marked up on low volume and then sold to the rubes. So, I'm still watching and waiting to get short. If it can tag the high of April 11th, $42.45, that would be sweet.
The close was nice and helped confirm my short conviction. So, at the open they gapped it up above the low of April 3rd, $41.68, and sold it up there all day and then closed it back under $41.68 at $41.64. The volume was about 140k and it was going against the April 3rd volume of 464k, not even close......not real.... no real demand......manipulated higher and sold to the unknowing. A nicely executed campaign by the sharks.
So we have a failure day; a test of April 3rd on much lighter volume and a close back under it. So now they will have to take it back down to lower prices in order to find demand. If it can get under the lows of April 15th, 17th and 19th ($39.45) on more than 267k then it should make a measured move to $36.46. Will have to wait and see. So, if it works out I should see about a 13% return in a week or so.
The XLF was a failure too. It traded above its April 11th swing high and closed at the high, not above it. The volume was 36M versus 49M at the swing. It could not take out the high and it had much lighter volume; lack of demand. It too, should head back down to find demand. And since OZRK is highly correlated to the XLF, we have more confidence. JP Morgan was an obvious failure today, a large component of the XLF.
The broader market looks ready to turn also. Looking at the DJIA we can see that its component companies are dropping like flies. IBM, XOM, GE, PG, T, and MMM have all fallen off the top with volume in the last few days. The S&P 500 will likely tag its high tomorrow morning and then fall apart. And lastly tonight is the full moon.....new and full moons are very highly correlated to market turns.