You are particularly vitriolic tonight. What gives? Bad meal or bad back?
Question: One of your main themes to newcomers on the board is to advise them to do their own due diligence and not rely on analysts, newsletters, or whatever secondary information is out there. If I am characterizing your advice correctly, you tell them to go to conference calls, break down the financials, and basically do all the nuts and bolts stuff themselves. This presumes a level of expertise that most of us do not possess, whether it is in financial analysis or in evaluating the technical capabilities and opportunities for leading edge products. If you indeed have that level of expertise, I congratulate you. If, however, you don't I suggest two things. First, fundamentals as you interpret them do not move a stock, but the collective opinion of analysts and newsletters may. Second, the notion that you, and only you, can divine the future performance of a stock smacks of hubris. I appreciate the fact that you speak your mind, albeit loudly, but give us lesser mortals a break. We are just trying to make enough to buy a round at the hotel. :-)
If you go over to the HLIT message board and review posts over the past week you will find exactly the same discussion about how the delay in announcing an earnings date foreshadows bad news.
Today they announced preliminary results way above the previous estimates and the stock is up over 20%.
I think the best point XB made was that the sentiment around ISIL is very negative. That tends toward an oversold condition, and if the upcoming earnings announcement and forward guidance aren't sufficiently negative, it increases the likelihood that the stock rallies.
The Intel announcement suggests better-than-expected computer-related sales, which should provide some help in what had been regarded as a possible weak spot. Similarly, price cuts in flat panels could boost unit sales and help ISIL's AFE revenues.
Though I think OIIM has better recovery prospects with a larger proportion of its business in notebook computers, I think the combination of buying at a low price and waiting for the mood to change is likely to work out well for those picking up ISIL shares.
hi ochs Those who don't want to read what XB has to say can always put him on "ignore", I am sure he would not give a rats..... Equally while he was absent in the fouth quarter, this board was less informative and lively.
I didn't say I didn't want to read what XB posts. He is clearly very well informed and an experienced investor. I was merely making the observation that secondary information does have value and, that by reading it, you can garner different perspectives on what may be the same "facts". You remember the old rubric "Is the glass half full, or half empty?" In fact, another person's analysis may be far more cogent than anything XB could produce. Of course, the fact that he does do the work himself gives him a basis for evaluating the conclusions of others. At any rate, I agree with you that the board was less lively in his self imposed absence. The "swagger" does get a bit too much at times, but I suppose he just enjoys baiting people.