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Helen of Troy Limited Message Board

  • yeflux yeflux Jan 5, 2006 12:52 PM Flag

    no, don't think so

    Hey contrarian, I agree with you generally, but I don't think this is the time to buy yet. Depends on the earnings, but I expect it has quite a bit of room to go down yet. Don't catch the falling knife...wait for it to go in the right direction.

    If they miss their very very much lowered estimates at 77-78cents (revised from over a dollar), this would be BAD! a blood bath, so don't think there's no more room down.

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    • Not likely that it can tank down much more without a HUGE change in the story. You typically don't see insider buying and NO insider selling if the stock isn't going anywhere but up over the next 6 months to a year.

      • 1 Reply to pokrhard
      • I'm reminded of what Peter Lynch has to say in One Up on Wall Street:

        There are many reasons insiders sell (diversification, need money for a house, college, whatever) - but there's only one reason insiders buy: because they think the stock is undervalued at it�s current price and that the future is brighter than people realize.

        Two directors put 34,000 of their hard-earned dollars into the stock in the last few months. That should tell you something. $34,000 is a lot of money for most people. The insider buying is what convinced me to buy a few weeks ago (besides being a fantastic bargain at this price).

        I have a very strong feeling that Monday is going to be a nice day for us. Note today's activity.

    • Tell me yeflux, how do you *know* the knife is done falling? You do you *know* the stock is moving in the right direction? If it goes up two days in a row, does that mean it can't drop 20% tomorrow?

      The price of a particular stock, in the short term, is entirely unpredictable. Nevermind what the "technical analysts" tell you. Very few people can successfully time the market, and chances are you are not one of them (I admit that I am completely in-capable of timing anything).

      You should buy on price. And if the price falls, you can either choose to take advantage of an even better bargain, or you can choose to ignore it. It's up to you - but for all anybody knows, today could mark the bottom.

      • 1 Reply to mjbraude
      • "how do you *know* the knife is done falling? "

        A-freaking-men! I didn't read the post to which you replied, but I've always had a devil of a time with that "falling knife" saying.

        Balance sheets, products, stock price and a few other fundamental things are the only way to decide what, if, how much, and when to buy something.

        I'm watching HELE now because the price has dropped. I made a decent profit in 2004 & 2005 when I closed my position in the mid 20s. I had bought in the $12 to 15 range.

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