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North Atlantic Drilling Limited Message Board

  • robin0635 Mar 5, 2013 11:45 AM Flag


    The X-Div date is March 7th at .225/share and that alone should not have caused a respondent 4.50% drop in price... I purchased additional shares on the dip to income-average, but have I missed some important information regarding this stock??? Any feedback would be appreciated.
    As always, Good Luck To All

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I was also unpleasantly surprised by the big drop a few days ago, and that no one has since stepped in to return the price to upper $9's.

      With little chance of the IPO occurring before May, current financials that don't appear to support much in the way of div raises, and no encouragement from SDRL management that they will get another rig into NADL's hands in the near-term... Now that we've reached ex-div I suspect we have "dead money" for the coming weeks, and that only once we're in April will money return in a significant way due to IPO approach.

      I would guess that NATDF's weakness this week has been U.S. investors getting out for now due to the lack of catalysts (hopefully to return later when May starts to loom), and maybe even to avoid having some of their capital returned to them as unqualified divs/ordinary income. That thought entered my mind, anyways. I think after the NYSE listing, the divs should become qualified.

      I will continue holding my full allocation, long position in the stock. The May IPO is not long to wait and in spite of what I said above I wouldn't be surprised either if the stock returned to ~$10 within a few weeks. I don't have any short-term crystal ball here... My "2-3 Month Crystal Ball" says "UP" though.

      And Robin, since you mentioned mREIT's, I'll throw in that my AGNC 3-week Crystal Ball says "UP UP UP from here through late-March Ex-div!", assuming the overall market doesn't suffer any major setbacks. Disclosure: Long (until ~ex-div)

      • 2 Replies to turbofever
      • robin0635 Mar 8, 2013 8:08 PM Flag

        Another down day for NATDF @ 9.31 - I believe that is an historic low since the reverse-split occurred. Guess that .225 Div did not set the stock on fire...
        Oh well, hanging-in because I double-downed previously; some good news regarding this venture would be most welcome...
        On another note, I tried to research the qualified vs. unqualified dividend issue that you raised and came up with a blank...
        Regardless I hope you have a good weekend...

        Sentiment: Hold

      • robin0635 Mar 7, 2013 4:45 PM Flag

        I have to admit that it appears our money with NATDF will remain flat until the IPO... Starting to get the feeling that this one is becoming the red-headed stepchild of SDRL and SDLP for the time being. But will be patient and await the NYSE listing which should be a positive too... (gauling that I cannot track real-time trades on this stock through nasdaq's flash quotes...) Definitely LONG here...

        You brought up the qualified vs. unqualified divs/ordinary income issue... Will have to do some research on that - you may be right!!! - That never even became a second thought to me when it was in the $1.00/$2.00 range - If you find anything about it please drop a post...

        In re REITS:
        AGNC - X-Div 3/18 @ 1.25 ; Thought they would have been more consistent and stayed with the previous X-Div date of 3/5 like 2012... Down today at close... I am probably going to unload on X-date and hold tight for a correction and re-buy on dip regarding ...
        NCT X-Div is 3/22 @ .22 - (will hold NCT until after split/spin-off and then adjust accordingly.)
        WCM is a long-term hold with a high yield...
        CIM - was the dog that had to put to sleep!!!

        Above all else watch the REITS and what the Fed does in re QE - If it changes all bets are off...

        As always G

        Sentiment: Hold

    • robin0635 Mar 5, 2013 1:59 PM Flag

      Unusual trading volume with over 360,000 shares traded today while the daily average for this stock is in the 60,000/day range. Pattern is quite unusual for this stock to have such wide fluctutations in price without negative/positive information hitting the market wires...
      Regardless, Good Luck to All...

      Sentiment: Hold