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North Atlantic Drilling Limited Message Board

  • robin0635@att.net robin0635 Mar 14, 2013 5:47 PM Flag

    OT: MLP's with upcoming X-dates

    This post is not relevant to NATDF, (since there appears NO NEWS regarding it),and if it offends anyone on this board, you have my advance apologies and I will stop posting OT's here - (learned that disclaimer from Bob); yet it seems one of the few boards on yahoo where diverse trading styles are not just shouted down without viable debate and where traders and investors, who actually do DD, may express INTELLIGENT OPINIONS on this stock, as well as others, without spammers, etc...
    Mr. turbofever:
    You asked about near term MLP's going X-date... Bob listed his MLP's on a lower thread today, and you already know mine from prior posts, and most have already had their X-dates... So after a little research, here is a partial list of VARIABLE RATE MLP'S with distributions coming in the next month or two that may be useful to you in the options area... ( I hold no position in any of these issues and have not done any DD regarding them (except NTI of which I am OUT short-term); there may be others that I probably missed, but I gave it a shot, and further research would be beyond my pay-grade... If anyone has other VR/MLP's please add them):
    DMLP - X-date should be around 4/20; last dist. was @ .4332
    RNF - X-date should be around 5/4; last dist. was @ .75
    UAN - X-date should be around 5/4; last dist. was @ .192
    TNH - X-date should be around 5/11; last dist. was @ 3.63 - (and yes that was the last dist.)
    PDH - X-date should be around 5/14; last dist. was @ .28 - (had only 2 prior dist. dates)
    ALDW- X-date is unknown/last was 2/20 @ .57 (found only that dist. history)
    NTI - X-date should be around 5/19; last div. was 1.27 (had only 2 prior dist.) - you already know this one.
    CVRR - (? variable?) - Didn't find any prior X-date, but yield is suggested to be in the 18% to 20% range/yr.
    Potentially this listing may be of assistance to you and possibly others... If not, it was at least an educational and informative exercise..
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • robin0635@att.net robin0635 Apr 4, 2013 1:07 PM Flag

      turbofever: SDRL broke resistance of 36.16 and sits at 35.56 as of 12pm 4/4/13 - (numerics, as well as the charts, do not look good); NADL broke resistance of 9.21 and sits at 8.85... The pullback we were waiting for appears to heading home now... Please drop me a line on where you are placing your "puts w/strikes" in the upcoming weeks/months because I believe its time to purchase some insurance... (hope not to catch that dreaded "falling knife" and it appears my only recourse is to go to the dreaded options route on these two...) Thanks in advance...
      GLTA

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to robin0635
      • Hi Robin,
        A nasty week for us and everyone else heavy into oil-related stocks, huh? For me, particularly on CLMT, and obviously SDRL & NATDF not helping... Re: NATDF, I agree with an earlier comment Bob made about not trying to apply technicals to this off-the-radar OTC stock. Just banish it from your mind and think about it again once it IPO's or once the CC hits ~late May, whichever comes first. Good news on either of those 2 fronts should pop the stock past $10 and make the $8's & $9's a memory. If not then it's time to think about transitioning out.

        I don't think I'd be of much help re: *buying* puts, I have rarely been able to pull the trigger on them myself, it would have typically ended up being "wasting $$ on insurance" in my case. Tough to get both timing and price (net of premium paid) right. Instead, my usual strategy for defense by default is to keep a hefty cash position during stormy times, keep my eyes on stocks I'd love to be in for a discount, and then buy in at prices I have conviction in when the market heads south and takes everything down indiscriminately.

        I like to *sell* puts when a stock heads down, on stocks I'm interested in owning. Then time works in my favor, and my worse case scenario is having to buy the stock at a discount of my choosing.

        Maybe this will be of help to you: "HDGE". It shorts a variety of stocks. Unlike a (typically, leveraged) market-index short (SDOW, SSO, QID, etc), it's not betting against both good and bad companies that are all part of a major index. It just bets against a select group of potentially inflated stocks. Not for holding "too long" due to ~3% expense ratio. Shouldn't "burn you" like a leveraged index ETF would if the market trickles up. Could be good to have for the next couple months. Anyways, check it out & see what you think.

    • Robin: Thanks for taking the time to compose that. Hey, that's a lot of fertilizer (RNF, UAN, TNH)! :). Anyways, still looking at a couple names on the list but so far nothing "jumping out".

      Bob, what do you think about current NCT timing/price -- feels like new investment dollars would be late to the party? I wonder about susceptibility to a macro/market downturn (lots of price gains to give back), and if it might be better to wait for such an event. It's run up 30% this year alone and at a 2x premium to book value (or is that typical?... Not for mREITs anyways which tend to stay under 1.15x)?

      NATDF/SDRL: Liked how they held up today during market weakness.

      There goes my time for today... Gotta run

      • 1 Reply to turbofever
      • robin0635@att.net robin0635 Mar 18, 2013 9:41 PM Flag

        turbofever: Yep lots of "fertilizer" but you wanted variable rate MLP's and that's all I could locate... The MLP's I like are pretty steady unless there is a bad quarter or something affects the upstream, midstream or downstream supply... They probably are of little use for an options trade unless you were going to short them...
        Bob could probably give you a timing/price index much better than I, but you will have to message him to get a response.
        MO, for what's it's worth, is that I would hold until the split is finalized and see how the market reacts after a few days; mREITS can be quite erratic depending on the market conditions of the day. (Unlikely fed. will do anything to change course until at least the end of the year; plus this flap with Cyprus happening before Wed. meeting makes a pull-back in buying bonds back HIGHLY unlikely)...
        I sold half my NCT at record highs ( never greedy) - holding remainder till after split - probably sell the NRZ and buy more NCT, which for all practical purposes is federally insured against losses...
        (Got burned last year with CIM, an adjunct of NLY, so I'm much more hesitant with a mREIT that is primarily unsecured; and hopefully the spin off won't be a dumping ground for NCT m's...)
        Specifics not yet given, so I'll wait until there is more clarity on the subject... You might look at the day it happens because there are many who will dump the NRZ and plow right back into NCT...
        (aside: I am up well over 60% with NCT, so any additions to it is playing with the "house's money" and that is a win/win either way...)
        I believe Bob purchased more SDRL yesterday; I'm holding until a market correction and then going to double-down again - SDRL has always been my pet stock...
        GLTA

        Sentiment: Hold

    • Robin: ALDW was only a partial quarter's distribution, for about 24 days (.57) In the companies press release they stated that if the payout had been for a full quarter it would have been $1.92.

      • 1 Reply to bobdbeck
      • robin0635@att.net robin0635 Mar 14, 2013 6:45 PM Flag

        Bob:
        Didn't find that out when I was rummaging through nasdaq's divvy section; it appeared a rather low return and that explains it ! You have these MLP's down pat... Thanks for the update and useful information... This is a great example why a CLEAN message is so badly needed...

        Aside:
        1) Since you have the skinny on this stock, what's the real story? Is it worth a DD investigation or is it too risky for my conservative tastes???
        2) turbofever also responded to your post in re NCT, and wanted to know why we both were so bullish on it -- (I think I'll leave that one to you, because you can explain it with less verbiage than myself - If I try, it would become a dissertation on federally secured mortgage backed securities/loans, the tax implications of REITS with the added nuances concerning the 90% pay-out regarding distributions, after expenses, plus management's accumen, plus.... etc.) -- (See what I mean... ) - You are more succinct...

        Looking forward for much input from you in the future and as always, a pleasure...
        ( just curious: Do you ever sleep???)
        GLTA

 
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