I had the same initial reaction as you did, then
something clicked in my pea brain and I said, yeah, I
remember that. What are your thoughts on the earnings
today, how do you think they will come in? Regards, Ken
While I agree a 23 PE is somewhat attainable, the
regional bankstocks that I reviewed have also been
acquiring and have amortization costs subject to mergers
A $72 stock price is
approximately 3.50X BV, which is all I think UPC will get. Too
many branches in small communities that have no value
to larger suitors.
Just my thoughts.
Given the high amort. of the acquisition costs on
the company books, earnings per share are understated
as compared to other similar bank holding companies.
Either the buying bank will receive a undervalued price
for UPC (and the CEO will receive a very nice
position in return) or the market will correctly realize
the PE for this stock is too low. PE s/b around 23 X
EPS of (annualized) 3.28 based upon a 10% increase
(very attainable given increase in prime of 25 bps.
Given this, the info price should be around $72.
I don't know the number of calls that are out
there, but I do not believe the stock price will be
above 50. It may reach 50 and then fall back. If you
have November 50 calls, better hope it happens then.
If you will look at several regional bankstock PE's
, the average appears to be in the 17-19 range.
Based on UPC annualized $0.71 or $2.84, the stock price
may hit $51-52 pershare sometime in the next year. If
you assume a 10% increase in EPS, EPS over the next 4
quarters would be $3.28 which would compute to a range of
$55-$59 using a PE of 17-18.
It is anybody's guess
if the stock will reach $50 by November, but if it
does, then core earnings are going to have to improve
consistently and not by reducing the provision for loan
losses. While reducing the PLL is good, other core
earnings must improve.
Didn't mean to give you guys heart attacks, lol.
This is what the message states: "FY 95 Financials are
restated for poolings w/Captial-Miami and Leader
Financial. FY 96-97 and FY 98 Q's are being restated for
That's it, so take from that what
you will. Again, didn't mean to get you guys ticker's
going, just thought you might want to know about it
since it wasn't posted anywhere else that I could see.