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Union Planters Corp. (UPC) Message Board

  • kenpock2 kenpock2 Jul 15, 1999 7:50 AM Flag

    Sharp

    I had the same initial reaction as you did, then
    something clicked in my pea brain and I said, yeah, I
    remember that. What are your thoughts on the earnings
    today, how do you think they will come in? Regards, Ken

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    • typo -- pay attention

    • Once, you are right on. I think you are one smart dude. Sharp needs to play attention and cool his personal attacks.

    • While I agree a 23 PE is somewhat attainable, the
      regional bankstocks that I reviewed have also been
      acquiring and have amortization costs subject to mergers
      and acquisitions.

      A $72 stock price is
      approximately 3.50X BV, which is all I think UPC will get. Too
      many branches in small communities that have no value
      to larger suitors.

      Just my thoughts.

    • Given the high amort. of the acquisition costs on
      the company books, earnings per share are understated
      as compared to other similar bank holding companies.
      Either the buying bank will receive a undervalued price
      for UPC (and the CEO will receive a very nice
      position in return) or the market will correctly realize
      the PE for this stock is too low. PE s/b around 23 X
      EPS of (annualized) 3.28 based upon a 10% increase
      (very attainable given increase in prime of 25 bps.
      Given this, the info price should be around $72.

    • I hope you are correct about the price. But, I would much rather see a buyout with a $70+ takeout by November. Then we would all be winners.

    • Your analysis makes a lot of sense. Guess those with the Nov50 calls are hoping for the best...as I am! Thanks.

    • I don't know the number of calls that are out
      there, but I do not believe the stock price will be
      above 50. It may reach 50 and then fall back. If you
      have November 50 calls, better hope it happens then.
      If you will look at several regional bankstock PE's
      , the average appears to be in the 17-19 range.
      Based on UPC annualized $0.71 or $2.84, the stock price
      may hit $51-52 pershare sometime in the next year. If
      you assume a 10% increase in EPS, EPS over the next 4
      quarters would be $3.28 which would compute to a range of
      $55-$59 using a PE of 17-18.

      It is anybody's guess
      if the stock will reach $50 by November, but if it
      does, then core earnings are going to have to improve
      consistently and not by reducing the provision for loan
      losses. While reducing the PLL is good, other core
      earnings must improve.

    • by way of the November 50 calls that this stock will be $50+ by Mid-November..may I be so bold as to ask what's your take on that?

    • .71 cents per share annualized = $2.84

      $2.84 X average Bankstock PE of 18 = $51.12 share price.

      Not much room for stock to grow.

    • Didn't mean to give you guys heart attacks, lol.
      This is what the message states: "FY 95 Financials are
      restated for poolings w/Captial-Miami and Leader
      Financial. FY 96-97 and FY 98 Q's are being restated for
      multiple poolings."
      That's it, so take from that what
      you will. Again, didn't mean to get you guys ticker's
      going, just thought you might want to know about it
      since it wasn't posted anywhere else that I could see.
      Regards, Ken

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