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TrustCo Bank Corp. NY Message Board

  • suzysaratoga suzysaratoga May 21, 2007 12:35 PM Flag

    I'm not complaining, but...

    As a TRST long, I'm not complaining about the increase in share price over the past couple of days,but find its genesis puzzling. The company's performance data continues to exhibit flat-to-declining performance, and there were no assurances provided at the shareholder meeting last week that would make a reasonable person think that this trend would be reversed soon;the company's own C.E.O. referenced a time span of 8 to 9 years, an eternity on Wall street, for the realization of benefits from an expansion program that represents an expense NOW. The sector isn't really showing signs of strength. The reason for the increase in TRST is really puzzling.

    Any thoughts on this matter out there (not including the meaningless nonsense routinely posted here by the company's marketing staff)?

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    • it was a misstatement I am sur e

      • 1 Reply to trstrulesalbany
      • It did not sound like a mis-statement.

        Further, a mis-statement of that level of significance in a well-managed company would have been caught by someone in maagement and been corrected before the adjournment of the meeting. In a company with adequate management, there would have been a press release noting and correcting the mis-statement.

        From TRST there was nothing, and that nothing says something- something not good.

    • Did Bob actually say 8 to 9 years? I talked to someone who was at the meeting, and he did not hear a particular time span. In light of my ELN going up $2.19 today, I'm less than impressed with .11 for TRST, also taking into consideration the after hours drop last Friday.

    • Many agree that Bob did a decent job running the company and that his son is not as capable.
      That said, Trustco does have some impressive assets.
      Maybe a larger bank will acquire Trustco ?
      Do you have any idea of what price-to-book ratio has been used in recent times for banking industry acquisitions ?

      • 3 Replies to becarefulwhatyoupay
      • I was impressed by the elder McCormick for many years, my two biggest regrets about his tenure being that I didn't buy more during his prime, and that I did not unload everything when he transferred the reins to his son. The validity of the concerns I and others felt at the time has been validated by the declining performance of the company and the resultant negative impact on the stock price since then.

        Is the company a takeover candidate? On the plus side, there is a largely retail funding base, although the hot money component is on the rise as premium rates are being offered to attract deposits to underperforming new branches. The historical (as in..."in the past", and we all know about forward-looking statements, right?) credit quality of their loan portfolio is strong.

        On the flip side, while the bank is somewhat large and the number of branches is growing rather rapidly, the geographic distribution of the franchise is rather quirky, and a great many of the expansion areas aren't producing the results needed to justify their cost.Their primary expansion focus has been on Florida, where larger and better-qualified competitors such as NCC and FITB are making strong pushes, and where real estate markets in many parts of the state are in a real tailspin. The "hidden excess capital" once imbedded in their loss reserves, investment portfolio, etc. is just about all gone. Competition has undoubtedly softened their credit standards, although it's too early to say if there will be a significant impact. Their trading multiples are excessive. They have goodies in place that will significantly enrich insiders before anything trickles down to the ordinary shareholder.

        EVERYONE is an acquisition candidate. The only question of significance is price. Possibly the best person to intelligently answer that question is Mr. Timmons, the former industry analyst now on the TRST payroll, and therefore no longer a reliable source of informed independent judgement. My own estimate, based on the elements I have just outlined, is that the current market value reflects the prospective worth of the TRST franchise to an acquiror. As an owner, I wish I could expect more. As a reasonably informed investor, I simply cannot.

      • My calculations result in a price of $15 per share. This may be a bit conservative but I would sell at that price.

    • I can't think of any company ceo who states a wait for improvement is 8 or 9 years down the road would not
      be tossed overboard in 8 or 9 minutes. New rule for investing; If a dad and a BOD put sonny boy in charge,SELL.

 
TRST
6.23+0.04(+0.65%)Aug 4 4:00 PMEDT