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The Priceline Group Inc. Message Board

  • biotechh biotechh Feb 14, 2010 3:51 PM Flag

    After earnings: $180/$190 or $230/$240

    I am long but not sure how the stock will react after earnings. Expectations are very high, PCLN will have to beat the most optimistic estimate for a decent pop.
    Any thoughts?

    Thanks

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    • Might stay flat after ER.

    • maintaining_orbit maintaining_orbit Feb 14, 2010 11:32 PM Flag

      150 on its way back to 123 in my humble oponion !

    • I will see the action on Tuesday and decide then but I was leaning towards buying Feb 200 puts and add some March 220 calls.

    • Here are some arguements both ways. Generally I think this will pop up pre-earnings to the 215 area.


      bullish-

      The stock is off of its high, by more than 10%.

      80% is held by mutual funds and institutions. There has been alot of profit taking by them the last few months. Most of the selling has probably already occured for the short term. If anything they would buy back in if PCLN.

      Technically the stock is at its 100 day moving average and has held above it. In the past year it has not crossed below its 100 day average.

      Also technically all of the averages have crossed into a bullish signal.

      Has held above key bottome end resistance levels.

      Has been very consistant with beating the street. More than 5 earnings qtrs.. they set expecations low and exceed.

      Bearish -

      Low volume upside movement. ( well lower than average ).

      Low short interest

      Option action has been bearish, though not sure what to expect with a stock this closely held by the big boys.

      Trend has been to punish earnings, no matter what, except for a few companies.. Is this the exception? I say yes, but still a valid point.

      A move down could go to the 175 level.

      Very little room for upgrades..Already rated outperform by most. So open to downgrades.

      Possible that conf call could reveal exposures to currency, stronger dollar.




      Personally I am bullish on this.. I do expect a move up pre earnings. Not sure about after, but my pricing model is pointing to bullish and an overall rally in the market. With options expiration this week it could be a wild week. Though after options expiration a rally in the overall market is highly probable.

 
PCLN
1,212.25+42.50(+3.63%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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