I have no doubt that PCLN is overbought and only has room on the downside. I had my heart set on ridding it down tomorrow..
Problem is that as almost anything with risk (i.e. tech/svcs) is likely to move down over the next few days anyway why overpay bloated options premiums with the earnings built in when there will be downward movement accross almost every other section. The real interest on PCLN was the expected downward volatility. But with earnings priced in, the cost of PUTS on PCLN are double other tech/cloud space names that also have room on the downside.
Not decided yet, but now thinking it may not be worth the risk and just get into other names , and come back in on Thursday or go way out on the Puts..
From experience, I have actually done better waiting out earnings all but one time, and then jumping in the next day on the puts or calls which are MUCH MUCH LESS and the momentum will likely continue in the same direction
Anyone thinking the same thing? That the PCLN ride (either short or long) may now be overpriced compared with other names that will be moving but without the earnings premium built in the options price?
I agree that the premiums are a bit pricey. You are probably best served waiting until after the release. If PCLN disappoints, there will likely be a HUGE drop, but afterward it will probably continue to be weak. Not sure how much it can pop if there is a positive surprise. One thing is for sure. Eventually this stock will go below $300. It's just a matter of time. Puts are definitely the way to go to avoid a short squeeze. Spreads help to reduce the cost, with the trade-off of a capped upside but at least you aren't having to shell out big premiums and you can play the downside without worrying about being squeezed.
PCLN has been oversold today and the ER is going to beat the estimate of $3.03 tomorrow, very likely. This will go up tomorrow but will not much volitality due to the fact that no one know how well the ER is going to be.