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POLYMEDIX CMN STK Message Board

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  • poorman99 poorman99 May 7, 2012 8:04 PM Flag

    Cost to produce?

    First this is by no means exact, but more back of the envelope to help answer your question..

    So if you assume for 2013 -2015 the company spends:

    8 million per year SG&A
    5 million per year on R&D efforts
    5 million per year for early stage trials

    They would need $54 million to get through 2015.

    Now add to that the cost of 63 phase 3 if going it alone, call it $50 million.

    This would mean the company would need to come up with funding of something on the order of $104 million.

    I'm excluding warrants to keep this simple and more conservative, if there are 110 million shares outsanding which get reverse split at 6 for 1 the stock price would increase to roughly 3.40 and reduce the outstanding shares to roughly 18 million shares.

    If the company prices a secondary at say 3.50 they would need to issue an additional roughly 30 million shares to get the $104 million which would put the outstanding count at roughly 50 million.

    If 63 is able to generate revenue of say 800 million a year (pretty similar to dapto), and the company sells at a 2x sales multiple it would value the company at roughly $1.6 billion (or roughly $6.40 a share) or an upside of about $3 per share post RS (roughly $0.50 pre RS). Put in a risk fact or and we're probably about $0.20 below fair value in my opinion so I think your right (not even taking 56 into consideration at all)..

    So yes I think from here there is good upside (but also a lot of risks/unknowns), but I still like the company and have added a little to my position on this weakness. I'm now long 18k shares at an average of just over $0.70

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