so now we're below our price of 1 year ago today...and this despite the fact we now have two Ph 3 trials in progress, plus several other promising earlier stage trials (or at least they seem promising). A good report on the HCC trial would help right now....this has been a painful ride down!
What worries me is the old adage that the market always knows 6 to 8 months in advance. If ARQL is well along into current studies wouldn't some people know if the drug was working and moving up the stock price? I’m not talking about insiders but patients, doctors, etc. that may have knowledge of a successful drug.
you are not an investor since you know nothing about clinical trials.
Before a trial is unblinded, nobody including doctors, patients, insiders know anything:
- Doctors and patients are prohibited from talking to each other
- Doctors and patients don't know who got and who didn't get the drug
- Each doctor has too few patients to drive a conclusion unless some doctors observe overwhelming complete (curative)responses using monotherapy vs placibo
Note that with some drugs doctors know who got the drug based on specific side-effects (rash in cancer patients who responded to EGFR drugs like Erbitux, Tarceva, etc.,)
The bottom line: unless a clinical trial stopped due to terrible side-effects people know close to nothing.
From investment point of view, before a biotech has completed a registration trial for its first product its market cap is pure guessing, speculation, and manipulation.
I'm going to make a guess and say that "BATS" exchange has a large sell order to fill for a mutual/hedge fund to be completed by August 31. Why bid higher when you know there's shares for sale.
The fund takes the loss, waits 30 days, and reestablishes a position beginning Oct 1.
Just a guess.
I agree that the price level for ARQL at this point should be about the $6.00 - $7,00 it was at until just recently - considering the late stage trails it has going on. I have notice that in the past this stock has tended to simmer low for a couple of months before going up very quickly. Of course, it could slow cook till April, but I am betting it goes up sooner. I am also hoping the HCC trial will show good patient results before the end of the year. Although, the trials where the combinations are being used, are expected to have a better chance of succeeding.