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ArQule Inc. Message Board

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  • scott_plum1 scott_plum1 May 4, 2012 6:33 PM Flag

    looks like headin'...

    like all of you, I have been in this long enought to see the same thing over and over again with Arqule. Bottom line that I've come to realize is that the market is not going to reward Arqule until successful Ph3 and maybe not even until approval. Pucci & Co is looking smart for raising money at 10% premium to current price. I think dilution is irrelevent. I also think missing by $.01 is irrelevent. With all of the institutional leverage in this, it doesn't take much to move this up or down. These annual swings are just more short term noise in a tide that seems to be generally moving in the right direction. We are either holding a diamond or a POS. There has been nothing that has happened recently to signal a POS in my mind. In fact, HCC was gravy and it further validates the theraputic benefit of our drug as stand alone, which gives me more confidence that we will see a benefit in the subset that we are targeting in NSCLC after learning from PH2 results. I'd rather have a company with a stronger balance sheet, more flexibility in negotiating other partnerships and take the minimal dilution and short term drop then get caught in a cash crunch and take much bigger dilution later. nothing new, but no reason to be negative in my mind....good luck..

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    • Guys, I am probably being ignored on the CRIS board and my posts are getting deleted even though I never suggest buying any stock and others are pumping stocks that have absolutely cratered. Since ARQL is so boring right now anyway, I will try to take my education efforts over here to see if you guys warm up to it.
      If your account is not large enough you are retail and the more you know about what you are up against, the better chance you have of surviving and being successful.
      Anyway, I don't claim to know anything, only that we should try to learn from history. My attempts are really aimed at all of us learning together from what is happening elsewhere in the market.
      So you have done your DD and you think your stock should be going up and the market is doing the exact opposite. Well there are always 2 sides to the story.

      My belief now is that there must be a strong bear(even when they are dead wrong) against any stock that is behaving opposite of current fundamentals. This, simply because we retail have so much information anyway even though sometimes we get it late!
      For starters I suggest everyone here read this week's version of thestreet.com biotech mailbag on EXEL, whether you think the author is smart/credible or not.
      I also suggest you look at a stock AMRN, not that I want to you to buy it. I am actually using the stock to learn one thing and one thing only and that is risk management. There is a growing consensus that AMRN is going to be bought 24+, yet one insider,ABINGWORTH LLP, just recently sold 6 million shares and more than 10 percent of the float is controlled by the shorts.
      Now for exhibit C, here is what GSK had to say about HGSI at annual meeting in response to a shareholder's question:GSK made an unsolicited offer for long-time partner HGS last month, which the U.S. biotech company rejected.

      "We think we can deliver an extraordinary return to (GSK) shareholders through this acquisition," Witty said, adding that the offer was shrewdly timed as HGS shares had been trading at close to a 52-week low.

      "I think we waited until exactly the right moment to make this offer, but nonetheless this is a compelling offer for shareholders at HGS to consider," he added.

      I of course have my own intepretation but would like to open the floor to comments before I inject any of my conspiracy theories.

 
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