difficult to interpret what's said and unsaid in this release. ph3 Patients can continue on tiva at physicians discretion...have they already seen some data that leads them to believe that one or sub-groups are seeing a benefit? (I assume they have at least seen some data by now). In call this morning I really hope Pucci provides some detail about the ph2 kras mutant trial...does he view that as significant for nsclc or not? (on last call after marquee debacle, his view seemed to be nsclc opportunity for tiva was over). A significant missing piece in release is any mention of crc results...that is very concerning. I'm afraid that's not looking good and if so we're faced with a long period without anything to drive this up out of the $2's.
Well, at 140M market cap, they already are at cash per share. They will not go less than 2. Instead, it will probably re-test the 2.15-2.2 area and then you it's all up from there. Look back over a 10-year chart of ARQL. Doesn't go less than 2, but when it falls to that area not more than one re-test before it's up and away. This kind of drug failure/delay has happened before with ARQL, this chart action has been seen before. Just remember the 140M in cash they have and the fact that they haven't given up on their leading drug. I'm buying heavily, especially if and when it gets into the 2.2's
Sentiment: Strong Buy
let me think.
A biotech with a drug with quite solid PhII cancer drug results has a market cap (MC) of at least $600M. ARQL is at its cash value at $126M without any debts.
Why is ARQL so low? let me see
- By early this year, the management learned from Roche/Genentech MetMab data that Marquee trial might be in trouble since they did not use right biomarkers for the pts enrollment. Then came good HCC PhII results.
- ARQL decided to protect themselves and went to sell the secondaries. By doing so, the management might informed investor-bankers about their concerns regarding to Marquee.
- Again and again the management expressed their concerns about Marquee
at all CC and presentations
- Consequently, ARQL stock price started to go down. Then came the Attention toxicity scare. At the end the Marquee results leaked down driving ARQL well below its cash value.
This is the history. Now,
- ARQL is below its cash value like it was a company going out of business. It is not a case. Jap partners are paying most of ARQL expenses
- The company is going into HCC PhIII. Tiva's toxicity scare was a false scare. This alone justifies ARQL's MC ~ $500M or $8.5 per share
- In the next 4-6 months, ARQL will get mCRC, two NSCLC trials results with prostate and breast cancer PhII results coming by 2Q
In anticipation of all these events, ARQL will start going up early in 2013.
Carl Icahn did not make billions by trading stocks using chart-analyses.
You guys should have been watching the charts instead of the earnings. You would have sold out on the first break of $2.50 and save yourselves a whole lot of money. You will be able to buy ARQL much cheaper as markets continue to head toward major trend lines at lower levels. ARQL is "dead in the water" for 6 months. No catalyst to head north. One of the easier plays out there is short or wanting to get in at lower prices. $2.00 re-test at a minimum. See you in May.
To each his own but I disagree.
I don't think anyone should count on 2.18 and I'm not going to. I added some today and will continue on a more aggressive path as the PPS closes in on the closing low with a cash surplus in reserve just in case of a retest of the intraday 52 wk. low. The logic is to be positioned at minimum 60-70% in the event of any sudden reversal before key supports are tested.
The shares are priced quite favorably on the long side from a risk/reward standpoint particularly when any kind of balance sheet overhang is completely out of the near and mid term picture.
I'm a buyer in here and lower if possible.
- I wish Pucci never opened his mouth. He speaks a lot but not to a point. He is too much in business/marketing. Instead of providing data, Pucci speculates.
- Marquee: it is still going but ARQL has no clear picture of what is going. Too many sites, too many physicians discretion. By Jan 2013, ARQL will start getting data in and analyze them. They have no clue how many pts with available c-MET+ data (expectation of ~600 pts with c-MET data)
- KRASm NSCLC trial is close to a full enrollment with some positive signals
- mCRC trial: results soon but it will be ORR and PFS not be OS
- Prostate trial enrollment is moving fast.
- Breast and other trials were not mentioned
- HCC PhIII will move slowly with a centralized c-MET testing
I lot of results in 1H 2013 and nothing right-now.
Tarceva is expensive. ARQL does not want pay for it. In US and EU pts will get it bur not in the 3rd-world countries. The good news, by now ~ 75 pts completed the trial (either progressed or died)