Should the results from phase 3 HCC be positive, i am pretty sure there will be a buyout. They have a great platform discovery for molecules which alone is worth 100M$+ not to mention their great cash position. ArQule is not dependable only on ARQ 197... there is 621, 087 092 and more on the way.
No doubt the arq 197 had a big impact but the truth of the matter is that i believe they got hit far worse than they should have.
I am hoping for positive announcements in the upcoming future and that would drive back higher where it belongs.
End of 2012 cash was projected as 127-130M. Subsequently, the company has earned a 15M milestone for the HCC phase 3. Not including the burn since the end of December (if we want to be precise) the cash on hand is therefore 142-145M dollars. With just under 70M shares fully diluted, that gives about 2.03 to 2.07 dollars of cash per share.
Considering that Arqule has a phase 3 drug, a strong partnership with Daiichi for that drug, a collaboration for additional targets with Daiichi, a partnership in Japan with Kirin Kyowa, three wholy-owned early phase compounds and the drug discovery engine that made all of the above possible, I think 2.52 is a pretty good entry point.
On the subject of a buyout, I believe that the clean nature of Arqule makes that likely. They have a single strong partnership in North America, which means no complications of other pharmas or encumberance of any of Arqule's assets. The economics of the Daiichi deal, combined with obtaining the pipeline and drug discovery engine, would seem to motivate a buyout. I don't see that happening soon, but certainly with the potentially positive results you mention, and a subsequent price increase, the parties may find within reach a deal satisfactory to both.