Koret- The "never wrong" GS came out, again today-
With a bearish call on the metal's . Regardless they flip 180 about every qtr. Buy-sell-sell-buy some folk's are influenced. We obviously also have a very weak dow today which was not a surprise but again folk's react "knee-jerk." With HL, we had a nice pop but have been in O/B tech. condition for a few day's now. That a little "exuberance" is being taken off today shouldn't shock anyone. And if we need a few more day's to re-build that shouldn't come as any surprise either.
As I have said many times, trying to call the daily twitches here is pretty difficult to do consistently, Especially when miner's/PMs are trying to establish a med /longer term trend. The majority of player's lately are short term flipper's looking to score, run & brag. The minority are med-long term trader's/investor's, & as such have to live with the short term volatility. This is where fundamental's come into play. You do the DD & if one believes in the fundamental story you stick with the plan until/unless something meaningful changes. When you flip daily you always run the risk of getting caught flat, just about the time a nice move up occurs. Then you either chase it, or get stubborn & wait for YOUR buy point which never seem's to happen. The LEAST risky way to play the metal's & still catch most of any move is find a good hedge. Maybe on an O/B dow stock etc.-using put option's. When one is prepared for the worst not much will scare them into an irrational move that cost's you money! Keep the faith !
"We obviously also have a very weak dow today"
In agreement with most of your post, but still see no evidence that PM stocks are following the Dow at all. E.g., today miners (except HL) have been up all day, with the Dow down.
Valid point silver. My "assumption" though is that the correction[S&P] will probably get a little more serious on the downside nearer term & weaken even the miner's a little bit before it's over. Obviously I could be wrong about this, all i'm saying it would not surprise me. In the big picture it doesn't change my view of an excln't HL earnings report coming up next month. Plus the fact when the "conventional" winner's in the dow start to fail the smell test often the recent "dog's of the dow" get a nice lift when they surprise on the earnings front. Like I say, I could be wrong by under estimating just how anxious short's might be to cover before earning's. In the meantime bond prices are up, rates down & fiat index hardly running away on the upside ! A constructive environment for PM's.
Frankly the only thing that look's serious for PM's near term is the possibility that 'yell'n might do the taper dance at the end of the month-another 10bil. worth [?] Just to dispel the notion she's "easy". Honestly though, while it might have a very short term neg. effect if it happen's I don't think the street will buy it if economic condition's are not greatly improved at that time. take care