Some time ago I posted a comment re HL management
insider buying as an indicator of better times. Since
this post I've read that HL board members are more
financially capable of buying than management. It seems the
point of my post was missed. Insiders include both
management and board directors, the point is that it makes
no sense for either to buy until there is some
substance to justify the purchase. Again, I won't get
excited about potential gains until I see insider
purchasing. When the insiders believe the company is looking
at better times I suspect both will find the money
If raising interest rates is so great for
preventing inflation, why is that strategy
Simple possible answer: Raising interest rates lowers
competition for money but does nothing about
cartel-controlled oil. The prevailing attitude of the last year
that has been saying the oil price doesn't matter is
just as nuts, IMHO, as the dotcom/biotech valuations
of last month.
All goods and services are
ultimately dependent on raw materials (mined or agricultural
or timber), energy and labor. Inflation happens when
companies or individuals start competing for genuinely
scarce resources, such as these.
cause of the higher inflation numbers looks to me to be
higher oil prices, just like '79. Productivity is
continuing to increase, so labor costs aren't a major
factor. Other raw materials are mixed (nickel is up,
copper is down) but there's just no getting around that
oil price, which is a factor of production for
everything, including services and other raw
Furthermore, the oil price is an "artificial" event caused by
a cartel rather than a "real" event caused by the
normal interaction of free-market forces. Supply was
artificially reduced over a very short period of time. This is
not the usual model, which calls for demand to catch
up to supply over a longer period, giving the
markets a better chance to react.
think it's starting to look like 1979 all over again.
Even if interest rates slow down the economy,
inflation will pick up anyhow.
Our little HL has been a turd floating in the
market punch bowl for 10 years, but the inflation news
and the tech crash could cause just the small spurt
of sector rotation to metals that we need for a big
price jump. This 100 year old NYSE company now has a
market cap that is a small fraction of that of dozens of
tech companies that are nothing more than a rented
office and a dubious idea. If only a few of the legions
of bitterly disappointed tech speculators get
interested in the most excellent business of scraping
precious metals and useful minerals out of the ground and
selling them, we'll be in for a good ride.
It seems some have viewed the 1806 post as a
recommendation to sell HL. To the contrary! I believe HL is
setting itself up to take advantage of any precious metal
move and at the same time building a income base from
the ball clay division that might well classify it as
a long term growth company. I'm just saying I will
not get excited about any kind of a sustain runup in
price until I see insider buying. HL is a long term
hold for my portfolio. I'm just disappointed
management hasn't done a better job of promoting the clay
division to brokers and impatient for a pay off on
management moves to stim the long history of operating
loses. Long HL, gentlemen!
Of the bigger listed silver companies (CDE, SSC,
HL, PAAS and SIL), HL is the only one that is no
longer clearly in a long-term downtrend right now.
Certainly, HL, along with the others, is down over the last
year, but even if it isn't out of the downtrend yet (it
isn't clear), it has at least flattened out better than
the others over the last couple of months.
these companies, HL is also the only one with a
non-precious metals related revenue source.
reasonable to believe that all of these firms are suffering
from the weakness in both Au and Ag over the last few
weeks, along with a few unique problems like SSC's
finances and PAAS' Russian difficulties.
If so, the
relative strength in HL's stock suggests that KT provides
HL with a certain ability to hang in there (at least
at this level) even if PM prices stay down...in
addition to being a potential growth opportunity on its
Therefore, also long HL.
If you click on the chart link below, note the 4
1/2 year period from 1988 to June 1992.
( 1992 was
an election year ). Now note the 4
from 1996 to 2000. ( 2000 is an election year ) If
history repeats itself, sometime between now and June the
Gold/Silver index should start
How natural a process (thinking about what they
KNOW!) directors and managers transition to actually
BUYING/INVESTING IN THEIR SECURITY, like common or preferred stock
in HECLA, on the basis that they believe it DIRT
CHEAP and that it's gotta GO UP! Unhappily, they have a
DELAY PERIOD before they have to report their HL
purchases PLUS can't be front running GOOD NEWS ~ they HAVE
TO WAIT 'TIL THE PUBLIC KNOWS! So, I'm with YOU,
sitting on the sidelines pontificating HL ~ not buying it
~ because I'm a momentum player and am getting all
the excitement an old man can cope with, with IWA,
MMGG, SAFS and AGT... Who needs HL? Wait 'til Mr. COORS
relates he's bought a BIG BLOCK, then we'll but TOO!
Thanks, Journey! PEACE be upon your HAPPY HOME!
Peacemobile...glad to hear of
your successes in other stocks..let's hope HL can also
be included someday...
Funny...I was thinking
of something to say, but I guess it's like a broken
record (oops, I mean CD....I guess I'm dating
Honestly, though, I am looking at this year as a crucial
year for myself and my HL investment...since I have
held it since '97, my long-term investment is getting
longer every year...I need the action...I feel the "need
for greed"...keep getting my financial magazines that
identify all the new millionairs....why can't I be
Well, I am off on my journey for this