I don't know what information some of you are looking at when you say the industry is on the verge of taking off due to stimulus money, etc. Does not look too good to me. Yes Daninfw, I am a glass half empty type of person.
FROM INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION MAGAZINE "The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) says unemployment in the US construction industry is running at 20.7%, citing federal employment figures. The association says some 16000 net jobs were lost in the industry in December as stimulus projects and other temporary schemes were wound-down.
AGC chief economist Ken Simonson said, "At this point, it doesn't look like there's anything to replace the temporary help that the stimulus has been providing for the construction industry."
The 16000 December fall in employment equated to a -0.3% drop in construction industry employment said the AGC. Employment in the industry fell to 5.6 million people, compared to a peak of 7.7 million jobs in August 2006. Mr Simonson added that the industry has lost 93000 jobs in the last 12 months.
Heavy and civil engineering construction, the category most likely to be affected by the stimulus and other temporary federal programmes, experienced the largest decline within the construction sector, dropping by 12700 for the month. Before December and November, that segment of the construction industry had been adding jobs for much of 2010.
The AGC says the decline indicates that stimulus and other temporary federal projects have begun winding down, and it added that the situation had been exacerbated by unusually harsh weather in December."
I love how you traders using cheap money (thanks to prop things up at all costs Ben..QE2???)constantly bid up stocks in anticipation of the upcoming recovery. Look at the movement in TXI from September until now, it's only explainable by my previous explanation. While I think you are a smart investor Dan, you have consistently called the turnaround too early while I have been spot on with my more cautious outlook. The problem as I have menttioned before, is that the market and people like you can stay irrational a lot longer than I can stay solvent. Good Luck, but remember we are still a long ways away from a legitimate turnaround. The policy responses to date have only kicked the can down the road, and deffered the pain (by that I mean repricing assets to their actual and not government policy inflated values) we must endure before a true recovery can take hold. You will see what I am saying when you value your HOV bonds 18 months from now.