I love how you traders using cheap money (thanks to prop things up at all costs Ben..QE2???)constantly bid up stocks in anticipation of the upcoming recovery. Look at the movement in TXI from September until now, it's only explainable by my previous explanation. While I think you are a smart investor Dan, you have consistently called the turnaround too early while I have been spot on with my more cautious outlook. The problem as I have menttioned before, is that the market and people like you can stay irrational a lot longer than I can stay solvent. Good Luck, but remember we are still a long ways away from a legitimate turnaround. The policy responses to date have only kicked the can down the road, and deffered the pain (by that I mean repricing assets to their actual and not government policy inflated values) we must endure before a true recovery can take hold. You will see what I am saying when you value your HOV bonds 18 months from now.
Every mental midget out there knows that traders have been the ones to make money last two years.....not investors. I just finished taxes and averaged over 40% return last year in every single one of my three trading accounts. I'm not too worried about 18 months from now. The HOV bonds you are so concerned about I bought at 68 and they are now 75. That's 10.29% return not counting 12.68% return on interest. You really seem to be missing the boat. You also seem to be a smart guy. I may or may not be holding the HOV bonds in 18 months. I also bought $500,000 face AHRI bonds at 38 and they are now 57 and paying $92.50 interest per year. This $190,000 investment will return $525,000 on top of the $190,000 in 2 years......sorry you are missing the boat. The current market/economy is a trader's dream. I could care less how things are in 18 months. I will adjust. How much money did you make on HOV the last year plus shorting them? You would have lost. As for TXI, anyone thinking as you would have missed the runup from September from $31-32 to $45+/- which is where I would have gotten out. Good luck. DaninFW