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Rite Aid Corporation Message Board

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Oct 11, 2013 10:35 PM Flag

    Branded drugs going of patent for the next few years

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
    Lidoderm Patch (3Q) Detrol LA (1Q) Namenda (1Q) Crestor (3Q) Seroquel XR (4Q)
    Diovan (4Q) Nexium (1Q) Abilify (2Q)
    Cymbalta (4Q) Renvela (1Q) Procrit (2Q)
    Excelon (1Q) Travatan Z (2Q)
    Celebrex (2Q) Zyvox (2Q)
    Restasis (2Q) Aggrenox (3Q)
    Copaxone (4Q) Combivent (4Q)
    (Number in parentheses refers to the expected quarter of conversion)

    Some pretty big drugs listed, possible margin expansion for the next few years.

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    • Cymbalta,Abilify,Nexium and Combivent are huge. Crestor, Namenda,Celebrex,Restasis,Crestor and Lidoderm should be important also. Procrit I'm not sure about as it's more institutional than community. Seroquel XR is difficult to judge as the immediate release form is already generic and the XR has just been so-so. The XR could however get significant numbers of switch from immediate release form as physicians tend to like the improved compliance of XR. Depends somewhat on insurance co. acceptance. Diovan, Excelon,Travatan Z, Zyvox, Aggenox and Copaxone won't mean a lot but every little bit helps. We will only see 6-12 months of significant results from these as margins shrink rapidly after that. I would not expect these to necessarily improve the pharmacy margins of the past few quarters as these just replace some other patent expirations which are losing their impact. 2014 may be the last true "windfall" year as expirations are much less significant after that.

    • I actually notice the name of almost half of them, thru news articles.

      If they're in the news, they're being used :)

      That could actually be quite significant.

      You should write a Motley Fool or Alpha article on it.
      You certainly couldn't do any worse than the rest of them :)

      Don

 
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