There's no easy way to say this so I'll get right to the point, I think we got hosed! I went over transcripts 2 times, I don't have your warm fuzzy feeling on this call. I've read all about Wi-Fi offload / Hotpoint 2.0 / .11u / Passpoint / and Wi-Fi Cellular Alliance and I to thought TWER had early advantage and was in great position to capitalize on want and need for offload. I've obviously missed something! Could it be the device venders? The build it they will come strategy hasn't worked out, if someone doesn't "flip the switch" SOON we're all up a creek. For all I know the carriers can strangle TWER and buy them out cheap. Look at TWER from all angles, I'd like to hear your honest opinion...
TWER is a bleeding edge company. They may do great, but only if the duopoly (ATT/VZ) let them. ATT/VZ will let them succeed only if the $ is right and TWER is not viewed as a threat. I do think it is a bit naive to think that TWER's assets are not reproducible. They do have some key rooftops tied up, but I don't believe that TWER's model and the tower companies model are exactly alike. Unless TWER can sign up a majority of bldgs in its mkts (impossible) it is lacking key protections. Tower cos have zoning for added protection.
This isn't to say that TWER won't succeed, I am just saying volatility in a name like this is to be expected, and getting in prior to an educated guess at LT revenue/profit is a matter of trust in mgmt. In that regard, it didn't help much that Thompson sold a bunch of his options for what looked like more than what was needed just to pay taxes.
Some insiders at the carriers want to move to a more services based model, but this will be no easy feat. There are internal corporate antibodies that will want to maintain the status quo. If they do migrate this direction, it would be a positive for TWER; if they can last through the transition period.
We are in the very, very early innings of the mobile computing economy. There will be huge winners, and spectacular flameouts who were right, just at the wrong time.