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ANADIGICS, Inc. Message Board

  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Feb 21, 2007 2:03 PM Flag

    ah, the short squeeze that's comin' up!!

    I know this is (or can be) in the nature of absolutely predictable "trash talk" when there *IS* a substantial short position in a stock, but ...

    (1) Somebody speculated that we don't have a recent number, so the BIG short position from a month ago is probably way down now.... I beg to differ. All other things being equal, for all that some big & small shorts stop out or make a call that they might have landed in that worst of all possible world for shorts -- the stock with a Heisman trophy-winner's legs -- in general, the higher she flies without one of your plus 10% days, the more likely it is that additional short money is on the table.

    (2) Remember, a short squeeze resembles the running of the bulls in Pamplona or whereever it's done -- that is, while many get out unscathed, the biggest risk is that the guy in front of you trips. My point is that it's not just me who can see lots of folks (pros included) hangin' out to dry. This is like a bone-dry forest in Arizona on the 4th of July. Some idiot is gonna insist on putting on a fireworks show and a few million acres go up in smoke.

    For my money, ANAD's spokesman dropped a match today. I was able to buy a bunch of calls around 1 PM because y'all must already have gone "all in," (and, face it, all the holdings of all of my "readers" probably amounts to 5 minutes volume for ANAD in recent days.

    One of the interesting things that was said -- and people more tech-y than I can tell me whether it was literally true or only figuratively -- on this A.M.'s call was that folks like ANAD rely on people "opening up" this or that device to see who's made the stuff inside. I'm pretty savvy re PC's, and I know you can! look at a card or the mother board and read the "DNA," but I'm not as sure about things like the I-phone. What I will say -- as a "psychology" maven -- is that the harder someone tries to enforce secrecy, the less likely they are to be successful, and the more incendiary (and tempting) is the leaking process. That is, once you've weighed the legal risks and "tipped" your wife's know-it-all cousin (just so you can say "told you so" down the road), it's usually not too long before any mystery (and we saw that some reasonably well-informed people around here went from darkness to light not more than 3 hours ago) vanishes.

    The only hope the aforementioned shorts have is that we ANAD-boarders truly are -- irony notwithstanding -- the last to know.... At this point, I have objectively too much money riding on my conviction that that ain't so!

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    • Alright lemonyelow, I got on the option bus today. I took the AKQJC option.
      I'm hopin the Apple connection will make its debut and get ANAD the jet fuel it needs to shoot higher from here. At least I got a few months cushion from here.

    • AS IF... I could justify ANAD's moving from here to 25.

      Call it a WAG -- and, as you said, one with no small element of "wouldn't it be nice" in it.

      But the cutoff number for Russell last year -- you can look it up -- was a number ANAD crossed in the last month or 2 or 3; that's when I actually posted the "news" here.

      I've actually played this game in the past. Sometimes, it comes down to the wire, with -- obviously -- the 3000th biggest company by Market Cap a whisker larger than the 3001st.... As I say, ANAD's a shoo in at this point, and if it is not come June 30th or whenever the actual date is -- it might be the last Friday in June -- I most certainly will be singing a different tune. Correction, I won't be singin' at all, at all!

    • Hi Lemon; I'm not familiar, much, with the effect of being included in the Russel index.

      Why do you think ANAD will be included, and why this year/ And, what is your reasoning for expecting ANAD TO BE 25 in June? I'll take it, but, that is a very big move from here to there.

      Regards,

      Anchor

    • I'll avoid repeating my thoughts (and others) re Apple.

      As to the "pop" for a Russell stock.... As I said, it didn't take long for folks to realize that this was to 100 or so stocks what steroids "may have" been to the likes of B. Bonds.

      So, one really needs some "higher math" to assign a meaningful number to the "impact" of being anointed. There is also one strong countervailing impact -- sometimes. Many of those included were not public companies more than a year or 2 back, and the founders and V.C.'s often take advantage of this "liquidity" event to lighten up. That is, knowing that there will be bids RIGHT ON a single day for at least hundreds of thousands of shares, they turn it into a kind of "secondary" offering. And while many hedge funds have closed any position they took earlier in March or April, some are also aggressive sellers on that one day in June.

      I'm sure you can see how some of that MIGHT very well apply to ANAD this June. But it's a little like someone's recent post that genuine short squeezes are rare, but this has some of the ingredients of a definitely possible one.... I don't think there's still a lot of VC money in ANAD, and the insiders don't have ungainly holdings. Moves of 5 and 10% on that day are not uncommon, although some years the "unwinding" actually makes the newly included stocks UNDERperformers.... Of course, I'm arguing that from Jan.-June or over some other period (like now-to-June), most of these stocks benefit to a significant effect. Finally, the case for this being a latent (not already realized) effect have to do with the fact that the last month's volume and price move almost surely have NOTHING to do with Russell. For hedgers to "position" shares all but requires a great deal more stability than ANAD has had recently. And if that continued to apply, you might have that most wonderful of events, a single day in June where the computers that do the "positioning" at WHATEVER PRICE smokes out the requisite number of shares.... move this stock up 5 or 10 points or more between 3:45 and 4 PM one day. (I'm hoping for a move from 25 to 35 on that day, but I'm certainly not predicting it!)

    • Lemon, I'm assuming news of Apple is only being guessed at by few investors. Just those few who read this board, and the analysts, who may be getting the hint, as they were the ones asking the questions.

      I am a novist regarding analysing this stock on a product basis, and always will be. So, I am just aking this boards clue, that Apple is an ANAD client.

      Are you fmiliar with the tape action around an inclusion in the Russell 2000 index? I realize index funds need to get exposure right away on a new stock, I assume. But, what is the pop factor? 2%, 5% ?

      Regards,

      Anchor

    • Total bullcrap. Why take up so much space to say absolutely nothing? Don't you have better things to do....like set yourself on fire???

      • 2 Replies to dennisinoc
      • I wish I could delete the previous post or replace it w/ this one. No wasted words this time. I submit that there is probably a bigger short position (presumably some of which is "naked") than you might imagine. For every momo player, there's one or more folks who learned as an 8-year-old that what goes up must come down and "invests" accordingly.

        With triggers like the upcoming Clearwire IPO and release of Iphone and ANAD getting its story out (among others!), my focus on a nearly inevitable short squeeze re ANAD is akin to saying that the sun will come up tomorrow! Of course, some day it won't, but what kind of odds would you want to play that hunch?!

      • The real question, Slick, is why you would chose to make your first contribution on this board such an utterly ignorant and worthless one? And why should anyone look forward to any additional non productive droolings from your general direction?

        Offer something substantive or join the crowd of losers, crybabies, and malcontents that have fallen by the wayside over the years on this board as their outright collective ignorance of ANAD was slowly identified and ridiculed.

    • lemonyelow1

      You made this comment in your post. "I was able to buy a bunch of calls around 1 PM"

      I have been watching with interest the Calls activity, which ticker symbol calls did you pick up?
      I have been tempted to give the Calls a go myself.

      TIA

      • 1 Reply to wmms101
      • I bought some Aprils and some Octobers. I've come to recognize that 10% spreads separate the ones you so totally have to be right on from the others that I seldom bite if the spread is something like 1.50 to 1.70.

        And there's no point nickel & diming, because if you bid 1.55 in that situation, 9 times out of 10, you'd see the quote go to 1.55 - 1.75 no more than a minute later.... I guess there are "systems" running the books, as common sense would lead you to believe.... But because this stock has become so liquid lately -- and maybe people smarter and wealthier than I are doing hedgy things that improve their odds, I've been able to make 4 separate buys of calls without feeling that the house has EVERY advantage.

        LOL if you join me. For all that eBay has made for efficient markets in everything from pez dispensers to used Harleys, the options market remains a den of thieves.... Well, that may be a tad harsh.... Let's just say they run it like Trump's people run casinos. I doubt whether anybody can make money on calls over time without being just a little "too good" in their selections.

    • I have to say, you spent a lot of time saying pretty much nothing. After reading your post, the only thing I could say was "what?"

      You spoke in a circle and said nothing. Did you in fact have a point to your comments?

 
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