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ANADIGICS, Inc. Message Board

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  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Feb 22, 2007 3:02 PM Flag

    ah, the short squeeze that's comin' up!!

    I'll avoid repeating my thoughts (and others) re Apple.

    As to the "pop" for a Russell stock.... As I said, it didn't take long for folks to realize that this was to 100 or so stocks what steroids "may have" been to the likes of B. Bonds.

    So, one really needs some "higher math" to assign a meaningful number to the "impact" of being anointed. There is also one strong countervailing impact -- sometimes. Many of those included were not public companies more than a year or 2 back, and the founders and V.C.'s often take advantage of this "liquidity" event to lighten up. That is, knowing that there will be bids RIGHT ON a single day for at least hundreds of thousands of shares, they turn it into a kind of "secondary" offering. And while many hedge funds have closed any position they took earlier in March or April, some are also aggressive sellers on that one day in June.

    I'm sure you can see how some of that MIGHT very well apply to ANAD this June. But it's a little like someone's recent post that genuine short squeezes are rare, but this has some of the ingredients of a definitely possible one.... I don't think there's still a lot of VC money in ANAD, and the insiders don't have ungainly holdings. Moves of 5 and 10% on that day are not uncommon, although some years the "unwinding" actually makes the newly included stocks UNDERperformers.... Of course, I'm arguing that from Jan.-June or over some other period (like now-to-June), most of these stocks benefit to a significant effect. Finally, the case for this being a latent (not already realized) effect have to do with the fact that the last month's volume and price move almost surely have NOTHING to do with Russell. For hedgers to "position" shares all but requires a great deal more stability than ANAD has had recently. And if that continued to apply, you might have that most wonderful of events, a single day in June where the computers that do the "positioning" at WHATEVER PRICE smokes out the requisite number of shares.... move this stock up 5 or 10 points or more between 3:45 and 4 PM one day. (I'm hoping for a move from 25 to 35 on that day, but I'm certainly not predicting it!)

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