i closed my large short at a smaller gain than i had to...low 12's was when i closed it, several days ago..then to see low 11's everyday after!! so i wait for high 12's again....in search of the big drop again..i say again..it has had a sizable trade everyday! but my gut tells me mid to high 12's will be coming. the public will only take so many 11.29, 11.10. drops...before it crashes right thru 11 like it did 12.
NOW THAT is a well-reasoned "position," even if I disagree with the all-important conclusion.
I keep coming back -- but I hope without seeming fixated -- to the impossibility that something as momentous (granted, just to the tens of millions of $ "bet" for or against ANAD) as "ANAD inside" (the iPhone) will not get "airplay."
That is, somebody like Cramer either "breaks the news" or picks it up from some trade journal or thing like this (presumably having used his connections to verify it.) Of course, it could be in tomorrow's Barron's or a hundred other places.... What it can't be, "logically," is knowledge confined to a water-cooler-type spot like this!!
And -- odds are that such "news" comes out while the market's closed. So we have a gap opening up and the notion of "re-entering at a lower price" is one of those cute ideas that could have made its backers a few percent, ... only they missed out on a gimme 15% by so doing.
(Of course, the alternative is that the news seeps in to the trade dynamic -- if it hasn't already.... Then ANAD outperforms the market for a period, seeming magically to act like a cork or whatever. How that would work [or IS working] is that longs and/or shorts, aware of something like the "mirror image" of the shelf that was overhanging for a few weeks, come in every time ANAD looks particularly weak. The longs add to positions thinking "Now the risk is mitigated by the price." The shorts think, "Covering at these levels makes more sense than HAVING to do so after a possible gap opening up tomm'w.")
The short to whom I'm responding is, I believe, 1-in-a-100 in his avoidance of margin. It's not for me to say whether the herd is sensible in this instance, but what is for sure is that most shorts stay glued to a quote vehicle. Moves of a certain magnitude (or much more subtle things) have them pulling the trigger (covering), because they are NOT stupid, and that's the only way they can play their game on any kind of sustained basis without incredible luck or inside info.
"the public will only take so many 11.29, 11.10. drops...before it crashes right thru 11 like it did 12."
Really? Strange that those drops start right out of the box as large gaps down at the open, after the pre-market has had a few trades, painting the tape much lower. This is a stand by trick large short positions use to try to 'paint the tape" and scare people that the open is going to be bad, IMO. How hard is it to trade amongst your own two accounts in after market or premarket? You can establish your own price, cuzz few people buy or sell pre market when there is no news. It should be very easy to set whatever price you want in the pre market.
Three times this has happened, and there was no news to set the stoc up for a large gap down. Each time the stock recovered quickly. So, why did the stock gap down very hard at the open three times? Hmmm. Makes you wonder.
I'm not sure this stock can stay down very easily. It seems to act "corky", meaning you can knock it under water, but it just pops back up quickly, once the pressure is removed. I've seen stocks like this, and made up the term "corky". When you see this, it shows the stock is under big accumulation. There is too much competition to buy shares to allow it to stay down for very long.
So, I'm not sure that you are right.
I wonder where all the demand for the stock is coming from? Hmmm. Could it be shorts?
You've had the shelf offering which puts doubt in people's minds as to the pricing, and a major whopping market correction, plus the pre market shennanigens, and the stock still acts corky. Look at the last few days trading ranges. Huge ranges with the stock climbing back to the top of the trading range almost every day. That's what I mean by the term 'corky"
So, I wonder where the stock will consolidate. I'm not going to speculate on that. But, so far, this area looks like a reasonable consolidation area. You've had a 50% retracement of the whole move, from the bottom of the day before the Barron's article was released.
Watch to see if the pre market has trades inexplicably below the area where the stock closed at tonight. Then ask yourself, why would somebody sell shares well below yesterday's close, when there was no news? Gaps are rare occurances, and almost always are news related. Why would ANAD have three large gaps down in five days? The market sell off explains one of these. bUT, EVEN THEN, was that just a convenient event to paint the tape in the pre market? WOULD there have been as much nervousness if the pre market wasn't showing a huge price drop?
So three days with large gaps down at the open. That is quite weird.
this stock actually has me puzzled....i wont short it at 12....high 12's-13.75 yes..i had to cost average up a ton to get ahead of it last time..but had to grit my teeth and stay off it each day. the stock has no clear direction, but i will agree shows strength at each sign of weakness. i strongly disagree that shorts are buying it to close positions at higher prices. too many lower points each day. why buy out at higher closes knowing the next day will bring weakness at some point? i can assure you the short interest is high and will go much higher if this stock breaks 13 again. on a differant subject the dilution the 7 mill shares will cause will bring also less volatility. many shorts will go away. i still laugh and sigh and think of bottomfizzure saying "7 mill. shares shelf will be great for this company" that has to be a first i ever heard a long shareholder say that he likes the fact the company is diluting his shares by 15%, and at a discount to current levels. in the very same sentence as saying he is the anad guru...i will remember that one for some time to come. if i was a employee i would like it, a (current) short, but not long. then to say it will price at 12.98? because the board voted for a shelf that could be issued TO 100 MILL., then it must equal 100 mill., all his quotes of analyst's......just went out the window as a smart investor.