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  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Mar 9, 2007 9:34 AM Flag

    ANAD's secondary offering

    Just -- because if you're not as "rigid" as you sometimes sound, you should be a little more "tentative" given your recent (minor ?) gaffe re the SPO pricing -- another "friendly word" -

    From personal observation (and lots of anecdotal stuff), there are lots of marriages that an objective observer know ain't goin' the distance years before the participants wise up.

    You pay lip service to "not falling in love with a stock," and you say all the right things re "expecting a divorce" at some point, but your words around here tell a very different story.... That is, when people say about the risks in a high tech investment (and I'm not quoting YOU here) -- "Yeah, there's possible competition, technology changes, blah blah," they're clearly behaving in a "what, me worry" way.

    Hulbert, a good columnist, pointed out today that it's the 7th year anniversary today of the Internet bubble bursting.

    Take a moment -- and not just YOU! -- to ask yourself if you've learned the appropriate lesson(s) AND NOT JUST in a "Yes, I can *tell* you what one should avoid doing" way!

    For all that one can say, "Cisco bears no resemblance to Anadigics" (even saying such a thing makes you suspect, of course, in my opinion), what they share is pretty central -- looks like they're on a trajectory toward nirvana! ... But think about it -- if we can see their rosy prospects,

    (a) can't a fair amount of folks capable of changing the landscape (don't be too sure that they've got a 2-year "jump" either!)


    (b) why isn't the stock at $20, where Cahill's projections probably put it fairly? ... I'll suggest that the short position plays a role, and it COULD lead to one of those $15 to $25 moves in a month or 2 (in fact, that *IS* my considered opinion), but there's plenty of risk here!

    Class dismissed. And, B.F., you're so right about the flowers in the mire -- I sure hope you prove to be one such; I've got some serious $ riding (in part) on that proposition.

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    • Lemon,

      You post and its content is reasonable and seems very well intentioned. I appreciate your "cautionary tale" and my Life is one big "cautionary tale". I have had my A$$ handed to me about as many times as I have harvested a bumper crop from my investments. However, the trick to realizing large capital gains over the fullness of time in my experience over the years is to mitigate the size of the A$$ kicking you receive on a "loser" and maximize the size of the bumper crop you harvest on a "winner". I have had few truly big "losers" while I have enjoyed several really big "winners". Mose of the "losers" came about during my younger days when I took my eye off the ball or allowed myself to rely too much on the research of others rather then sticking to my own. Meanwhile, my biggest winners typically have come when I acted with conviction at "inflection points" by investing based on my own research that was often completely at odds with the prevailing market wisdom at the time. The term "Married" to a stock is a damn joke. I only sarcastically make referecne to it because that is the truly impotent charge almost universally bantied about by Cesspooler's when they have no cogent response to a true investor that knows a given investment very well.

      I think we all acknowledge Yahoo's boards are not a real venue for a real discussion about the merits of a particular stock investment. I have been a contributor on various internet investment board from AOL to Motley Fool to Yahoo ever since "Al Gore invented the internet" and IMHO the venues were decent in the beginning but the snake oil salesman came en masse over time and absolutely hijacked any chance of a real meaningful discussion that would not be buried amongst huge numbers of garbage posts.

      I constantly strive to keep informed on all matters pertaining to any investment that I hold or anticipate holding and I share the vast majority of what I have learned or I make what I believe to be reasonable suppositions based on at the very least a basis in Fact.

      We do not have too many around here or anywhere on Yahoo with that operate that way so I always appreciate encountering one on that rare occasion.

      I would not call ANAD a CISCO like clone rather I would direct you to RFMD when they came along and ate ANAD's lunch right as ANAD was poised to hit its stride. RFMD delivered the MOSTEST and the CHEAPEST while ANAD always concentrated on being the BESTEST. RFMD's stock appreciated several THOUSAND percent during those MOSTEST and CHEAPEST years while ANAD's languished between a positive and negative return. If you held ANAD from its IPO you would have just recently realized a modest gain after years of highs and lows. RFMD even at its low price represents a massive return for its IPO investors.

      The pendulum is now swinging in the other direction away from RFMD and SWKS MOSTEST and CHEAPEST strategy toward ANAD where 3G, 3.5G, and 4G is demanding the BESTEST. If ANAD can execute even half as good as it look like they can, they have the potential to deliver the same types of returns in this BESTEST product phase that RFMD delivered during the MOSTEST and CHEAPEST product phase.

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