>What is horriffic for motorola, is bad for nokia, is bad for
>semi's. stay away til this pans out
News Flash: Cell phone sales are not going away anytime soon:
"Merrill Lynch has raised its forecast for 2007 global handset unit growth forecast from 10% to 13% with units up from 1067 million to 1106 million. Looking further ahead, 2008 unit growth is up from 4% to 8% with units up to 1196 million. They are also increasing unit estimates by 39 million in 2007, 86 million in 2008 and 111 million in 2009."
"LG Elec Sees 2007 Europe Handset Sales Up 60%
By Reuters | 12 Feb 2007 | 05:20 AM
LG Electronics, the world's fifth-biggest mobile phone maker, said on Monday it was looking for a rise of about 60% in handset sales in Europe this year, with the introduction of new premium models."
The cell manufacturers are beating each other up trying to come out with new models faster than the other guy and cutting margins.
That's why the manufacturers (or even the carriers for that matter) are the wrong place to play this market sector.
And that's why ANAD (and similar companies) are the right place to play. These guys sell to all of the manufacturers as well as to a few other segments.
So cramer can whine about MOT all he wants, but I don't see people buying fewer phones, fewer smart-phones, or fewer PDAs. Its not going to happen.
Sales will continue upward, and replacement devices (when people trade up the the next gotta-have model) will continue to grow, even as first-time-customer rates decline.
Everybody know's somebody who didn't have a cell phone last year but does this year. Day is fast approaching where every kid older than 12 will have their own phone.
Transmitters and Chips. That's where it is for the next few years.
who has just recently come clean and told all of the disbelievers that Mr. Market is controlled by a bunch of shady and oft times criminal string pullers willing to do and say anything to make money for themselves and take money from ignorant little people like yourself who blindly listen to false prophets and refuse to do their own research and their on critical thinking. Which Cramer told you to "stay away"? The Cramer that is used by various parties as a "tool" to screw and mislead everyone else or is it the "Benevolent" and "Loving" Cramer who has reformed himself from the bad old days and is not trying to find you that "Bull Market that is going on somewhere" that he has promised to find you at the end of his show?
So, you still want to believe Cramer, Huh? Perhaps his "great" call to sell Philip Morris at roughly 6 a share at almost the EXACT BOTTOM in the mid 2000 timeframe might give you reason to pause. He humped a lot of widows and orpahns into selling Big MO right before it when on a 15 bagger tear with Fat dividends every quarter for the next 7 seven years.
Guess who now admits he OWNS Big MO for his charitable trust? Yeah, you guessed it sweetiepie, the same Cramer you money donors worship and hang on his every word. The same Cramer who ranted and raved that BIG MO was dead and litigation can never be stopped and blah, blah, blah---BOO YAH!!! My only question about that theft was, "How soon was it that Cramer was BUYING Big Mo after he told everyone to be SELLING it and what were his pals doing the whole time?"
IMHO, Cramer is a TOOL in every sense of the word. He is a "TOOL" as in the colloquialism describing a body part as well as a "TOOL" in the literal sense as he is a device used by various parties.
IMHO, He is not a stock picker or a down and dirty researcher of the Facts. He is a mouthpiece, a sensationalist, a Yellow Journalist, and a bullshifter of the highest order.
Oh yeah, he is the same arsehole who recommended Sell Sell Sell ANAD a few months back at 8 or so.
Another real winner. Not as bad as his Phillip Morris SELL at around 6 in 2000 but nonetheless another stinker of a call that had no real Fact behind it just a lot of rapid fire hot air and lack of real hard nosed in depth research.
Anyone getting the feeling that I don't like Cramer or believe that he has anyone's best interest at heart anymore than the man I believe was his predecessor, Dan Dorfmann, the "stock tout for hire" did back in the bad old days on CNBC.
Its not that I don't like him (I despise him). It is more a function not liking his "drive by" mentality that screws far more folks than it helps for obvious reasons. It is mostly a function of me watching the pimp for years and seeing him make some truly awful wealth destroying calls.
BOO YAH!!! LOL
The manipulation you're decrying is so short term, instead of whining about it why don't you try to use it to make some $$? All this shit does is create temporary distortions to try and manipulate the actions of short term thinking, over-reacting wanks. It's nothing new, it's not going away, so either quit the game or learn to deal with it. Do your fundamental research and when distortions appear, try to recognize them and profit from them.
Today's NY Times knocks your view into a cocked hat, in my opinion.
They basically say that MOT needs to do one or both of -- probably both, even though they conflict -- "find a hit" at the high end and don't cede the commodity business -- get as good as NOK in terms of mfg and other efficiencies.
Meanwhile, it's much better than a zero-sum game, where MOT loses and someone else gains. This is still a rapidly expanding biz., and I figure it's got 5-10 years of the kind of advances we saw in PC's ahead of it.... There will be plenty at the high end (if the economy doesn't implode), such that folks will take everything in their office and living room with them (well, since size very much matters, mostly they'll take e-mail and other 'net based communications and entertainment.
And that's were ANAD lives. People who are wary -- but not so wary that they see a bear market in the near future -- can play ANAD as likely to benefit from the Iphone's introduction more than any company around -- including, especially, Apple, which may (like Sony) see its winning streak get snapped. I think there's reasonably good visibility on ANAD's fortunes for 18-36 months out, and if ANAD is still independent at that point, I'll be the most surprised person on the planet!
Oh yes, as we go way the heck down the cost curve, the few billion people on earth in less affluent environs than our own will keep ANAD and lots of others awash with cash.
Remember, ANAD is NOT into "commodity" products and probably never will be. Palm had a big press release a couple of weeks back when they snagged some design genius and said he might be able to make them a player again more or less via his own "genius." ... ANAD, in many ways, is like a Dreamworks with Spielberg (and his 2 very gifted partners, although that goes back a ways.) ... Some very bright people are being "channeled" into this niche where you KNOW billions of dollars are being spent every day, and more and more with each passing day. Yeah, it *IS* too good to be true, so ANAD's biggest worry has got to be competition, but I'm betting they won't "ramp down" as fast as they're ramping up. And if you read a few of the posts here and any other secondary source, you'll find that they're "in bed with" (in the very best possible sense of those words) with folks like Samsung and LG and Intel. (In many spheres with which I'm familiar, it's common to say that "However it turns out, the lawyers, bankers, accountants, etc. are gonna get rich on this or that." ... ANAD, I believe, is in that very enviable position re all those gizmos that are sucking up "parental" dollars like nothing else in my lifetime. Of course, "the parents" are buying in in a big way on their own, but if you share my vision that the only thing you're more likely to know a teen has on his/her person is underwear, and that thing (roughly speaking, his/her ipod and/or iphone or clone) costs $100 minimum, you (like me) have simply "gotta want a piece of THAT!"