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  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Oct 30, 2007 11:11 AM Flag

    buyout possible...

    I wrote that both long ago and RIGHT AFTER the unfortunate events of last week.

    Unfortunately, what SHOULD happen (and I'm certainly mindful that "should" is very much a matter of opinion) is more often than not at variance with things like management having objectives (personal wealth, in 2 simple words) that are totally in conflict with all other shareholders.

    I suspect that that *IS* the case here, because -- as bashers and non-bashers alike must know -- Bami et al have done what many high tech execs have done -- trade a chance to get mega-rich (i.e., become MONSTER shareholders themselves and then hope that luck and skill will turn them into modern day Bill Gates or Paul Allens) for boosting their annual "take" by an extra 100-300K. Yes, it's more than defensible, but when they "shank a kick" (put the ball in the water hazard or whatever metaphor you like) as they did last week, only the likes of "bottom" can shrug it off.

    That's why I mentioned in my post last week that one has to hope that there's someone on the Board who's not a lapdog.

    I have no idea if that's the case.

    Finally, there's the counter-argument (which I do NOT find persuasive, but I recognize that it's something you'd expect Bami and others to say, whether or not they REALLY believe it) that they'd be nuts to sell out at a "moment" of weakness.

    Obviously, I've lost a great deal of confidence in the Warren team. To say nice things about the operations guy may be more noble than making him walk the plank, but it sure had me (and I'll bet some of the analysts) going, "HUH?!"

    And one has to question Bami's scheduling 3 or more presentations in the month preceding the earnings release. I'm willing to bet that he knew about the problems in time to say no to one or more of those invites. THEY!! (the conferences) have left ANAD in a doghouse that should not have been the case. It's not just that the stock can't seem to find a base yet; I'm willing to bet that it's a lot harder for ANAD to pitch business when folks like Apple have to wonder if they can "deliver the goods" if they get the biz.... Plus, their bargaining position (ANAD's) is just terrible, since the folks across the table know how hungry they are for a win at this point.

    AND FINALLY, maybe if Bami had NOT BEEN "on the road," he could've/would've contained the damage better.

    OUR BEST HOPE, and it's very much a long-shot, is a "hostile" offer, where any of 3-6 biggies comes to the conclusion that $20 would get a deal done FOR SURE. Bami might or might not fit into X's future plans, but it wouldn't take anywhere near what Merrill's O'Neal (160 million -- is there anything more "obscene" than that that you've heard this month?) required as f-u money. The only good news on this front is that some of the other players -- MOT and TI come quickly to mind -- might ALSO be under pressure to do something splashy SOON.... and there's no time like now (with ANAD clearly "on the ropes") to bear-hug ANAD.

    ... I know it's a tried-and-true tactic to ignore things that you have no good answer for, but I'm appalled at how quickly the board's main bullish poster fell for mgt. "spin" and started posting feverishly along "now, more than ever" lines. At least, there was one intelligent bullish poster who admitted that ANAD is (AT BEST!!) dead money for a few months.

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