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ValueVision Media, AŞ Message Board

  • trumpace trumpace Oct 19, 2012 1:44 PM Flag

    Q3 & Q4 2012 My Take

    Since some here have asked I will give my take on Q3 and Q4 2012 all JMHO.

    I expect Revenue to come in at a low of 144.65M and high of 146.678M for Q3 with positive EBIDTA, no Profit.
    For Q4, Revenue of 165.241M low end and high end of 169.668M, EBIDTA positive and a maybe profit but it is just a maybe.

    Now that is a very liberal estimate on my part and in full disclosure I have no inside information to help in this, as it is just my guess. I looked at the comps of the past and what has turned around recently in the electronics issues and calculated a percentage gain minus pricing downturns in electronics in the industry itself. Now we will see how close I come to this. Again I do not consider these numbers to be conservative like I have been doing for the past several years as I do think the company has turned the corner to deserve a more aggressive analysis. Again do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I think your estimates for Q3 are quite reasonable, Mr. Trump, albeit a bit higher than mine. I think your Q4 numbers are too low, however. That quarter seasonally is 20% or so bigger than Q3 (or should be). Last year was a disaster; not only were they missing CE, but they had to conserve cash prior to getting the new credit line and therefore had insufficient inventory. Furthermore, there is an extra week in their calendar this year. The top line better come in above $170 million.

    • fastmoneyla Oct 22, 2012 11:55 AM Flag

      Mr. Trump

      Thanks for taking the time to give an update on your Q3 and Q4 earning estimates. I am seeing a lot more emphases on electronics over the last 9 days. This weekend shop NBC sold lots of ipad 3's (the new ipad) and a really nice all-in-one Visio Computer. I too am very optimistic about the upcoming quarters. I see today's price weakness as an opportunity to buy more shares below $2.50.

      Also, I am still confused about the new Best Buy collaboration/partnership. Do you have any updates on the dynamics of the agreement? I see this as a possible game changer.

      We could also benefit from more Macy's products. The pots and pans sells have been a huge success with viewers.

      Good luck longs!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to fastmoneyla
      • Thanks to all for weighing in on the forecast. I believe carlo and his gang are pretty close to the management and he would not be buying even more without some insight that may not be visible to us. So I believe it is a buy sign that is as strong as the "insider Buying "

        Sentiment: Buy

      • fastmoney,

        No, I do not have any to add to the Best Buy event that you already are aware of. However I do think it may have been a test of activity by Best Buy to see if this would be a value add to the business, as Macy's I believe did the same thing. That said, we may see more of a push in November as the Christmass season goes in full force. Again, I do think we will see more Macy's and Best Buy during the season.

        We have seen a pull back again in VVTV pps but more in line with the market this time IMHO penny wise not percentage wise, I agree with you as it is a good opportunity to add if you believe the company will deliver good results. Keep in mind that VVTV share price back on Nov 16th 2011 was at $1.82 and although we are up from that currently we have traded in a range for a year. Again, It will take preformance to move the stock and the earnings announcement in November should be the point for the pps to move again as it will be, or should be, the second consecutive quarter in revenue growth to show wallstreet VVTV is back on track. The Q4 will be the catalyst going into 2013. For now we wait three more weeks or so to hear the earnings.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy