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ValueVision Media, AŞ Message Board

  • paulmeldrin paulmeldrin Nov 21, 2012 8:54 AM Flag

    VVTV: the perfect short

    My intention is to keep shorting VVTV until it is at the $1.40 mark.
    Will I cover at that point? It depends. If there are signs that my prediction
    is correct, and that the horribly inept management team of Stewart, Ayd, McGrath
    and the other slugs are leaving, VVTV will quickly pop up a few cents, so I will
    need to think about covering. Would anyone with any talent accept a management
    position at VVTV? Of course not, the company is a joke, suited solely for
    employing out of luck retreads from the bottom of the talent pool. That's why
    the current management group is there: QVC retreads whom no one else would hire.

    If the collection of management parasites is not leaving, then VVTV is headed to
    mini penny stock range, probably near .85 cents, before it goes belly up.

    Meanwhile, watch for signs of very aggressive shorting all the way through the end of the
    year. If ever a stock was headed for a multi year low, it's VVTV.

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    • paulie, I short stocks but I really can not advise you or anyone else short selling here at these levels/ Downside gain potential of 0.40 to0.50 if VVTV reports a disaster which imo they will not. The upside is exponential versus the downside. While I do not believe it will break 8-10 until late next year I do not see any real move down worth the exposure from here. This quarter will be ok not spectacular but not the thing that short sellers roll to the bank on. It is true this team has made a lot of mistakes but they have also done a lot right. My opinion is they ran out of ideas when they thought the turnaround was finished. It is not finished although it sshould have been by now. Cost ? Mostly time but the brand image has not benefited from the lag in performance.The good side of the QVC experience the team understands the oerating and merchandising disciplines to be successful.

      The real weakness is that the QVC marketing and merchandising concepts that they enjoyed with success at QVC are largely not available to them as no current viable vendor at QVC can really sell them due to contract issues. They need to build new strategies, new vendors and better on air execution to drive a long standing sustainable strategy. They can however continue to plod along and make a little money. It will be enough to be a solid single digit share price as opposed to the success of an HSNI which really carved out a great strategy and executes even better than QVC on some of their airtime.The NBC Team laces too much value on their QVC experience, while it is quite valuable it is not the end all . The experience is a valuable tool but you can not build a house with only a hammer. HSN's CEO had zero experience in broadcast and she over came it very nicely and her shareholders have made a lot of money. Truly a remarkable job. When these guys can start thinking out of the box maybe they can replicate that. They are not stupiid or fools but they may be intellectually lazy and arrogant. I hope not.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy