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  • marubozo100 marubozo100 Jan 18, 2013 12:57 PM Flag

    Naysayers?

    Mr. Trump,

    2013 could be the most 'profitable' (as measured by EBITDA) year in this 22 year old start-ups' storied history. That would mean 2013 should be greater than the $17.7M EBITA achieved in the year ending 1/31/2007 when Sir Will of Lansing was lord of the realm.

    In late 2006 the pps achieved a HI of $14.12. A pps not seen since.

    If 2013 is indeed the year it could be then it seems reasonable to expect a pps in the $12-$14 range one of these days, weeks or months.

    I am not so sure we will see actual profitablity (beyond the EBITDA flavor) until next year.

    Of course, just as Sir Will of Lansing chose 'poorly' (in reference to the grail) and he fell on his sword (actually pushed on his sword) in October 2007 for a major guidance miss...marking the beginning of the 5 year curse that still afflicts the pps...KS & Team could also choose 'poorly' and fritter away the $15M FTE savings on all manner of absurdities which would continue the pps curse for even more days, weeks, months, years....

    Thinking positively, let's hope KS & Team choose wisely!

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    • mar, Yes if they choose wisely which if you look at this teams history, I believe they will. Now if I am right and they let the 15M hit the bottom line (or most of it) at 1.25 per month the chance of a profitable quarter is there to be had. I do not think "Sir Will" had anything close to that number but was more part of the problem of increased carriage cost which was part of his demise. I do think KS and Team are in a better situation with their experience in this business and their model shows that. It has taken a long time to get to this point and if not for the electronics issue we would be well at the 12-14 level today as their five year plan would have worked in the end. Now we must put aside the old plan and look at the future to get back on track and that should be shown in the Q4 number somewhat but more so in the Q1 since Q4 will only receive 1.25M although strong electronics could help also. But starting in Q1 and for each of the following Q's each will get 3.75M to the bottom line (and this does not consider any other contracts that are being negotiated in 2013) and that is where we could see a quarter or two with dare I say, a profit.

      Now why I say a quarter or two are because if they reach any new terms they might have to put up some cash up front on channel positions where the savings in carriage would show up in time as the effect of that event takes place and I am ok with that. But first they need to show wall street and us investors that they are in control of the operations side of the business and that is why they may want to show a profit first. Again JMHO

    • Like Perceval, we have wandered so long and so far in this search...

      • 1 Reply to mr_william_munny
      • Mr. Munny, indeed. Too long we have wondered in the wilderness searching for the "grail" or the "milk and honey" or EBITDA or a strong partner or strong brand or strong management or mature homes of more homes or cheaper homes or higher ASP or lower ASP or better customer service or better merchandise or more internet sales or more web video or net radio or big stars or fan buzzed.....this is the longest start-up in the history of start-ups and surely one that set a record for spending the most money $1B+ with so little to show for it....not even a sock puppet!

        The pain and agony endured can only be made up if the pps were to hit $120! LOL

 
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