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Claymore/Delta Global Shipping Message Board

  • bloodysheepbath bloodysheepbath Feb 14, 2009 11:39 AM Flag

    Surprised.....

    I am surprised this board and stock is not more active. Several boards, DRYS, EGLE etc are booming and I understand that DRYS is one of the more actively traded stocks in the market.
    The beaten down shipping sector should be one of the first to rebound and those shipping companies that survive will give huge returns over a long period of time.
    All individual shipping companies seem to be at risk. Some have avoided the crash as this oil/credit crisis continues due to conservative management. The longer this recession continues and the BDI rates bounce on the bottom, all will suffer losses. Even those that seem to be well positioned are starting to crack and get dragged into the financial fray.

    SEA seems to be the perfect safe haven for shipping investors eliminating the risk of losing all due to individual bankruptcy. Due to the nature of ETFs the reward will not be as great as those lucky enough to pick the "right" stock but the risk of unrecoverable losses is negligible.

    Am I missing something here?

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    • There seems to be a bet against sea in the next 5 months.

      there are no call bets between april and aug, but there is a put option for aug.

      • 2 Replies to scifijoe2001
      • Im in this game a long time. If option activity was a leading indicator in the long run, we'd all be rich. Often option activity is either gamblers throwing the dice.....or the smart money going opposite their position as a hedge. Or..............some group of numbskull hedgefunds (they arent all smart, yuh know.)following some options straddling type system and often they blow up. Id say maybe 20% of the time is huge option activity a time to buy. But.....Im just a daytrader. What do I know? To me.....options are for suckers. You have to be both right in direction "and" timing. And sometimes still you decay so much you barely make enough to make it worthwhile. Everyone nows the story of some guy somewhere who got into AOL or MSFT options at the right time. But yuh never hear about all the calls that went out the window on YHOO and CSCO and 90% of the tech companies in 2001. I repeat...most options buyers are the suckers. Always fade the suckers. Im an ex las vegas dealer as well as stockbroker and now daytrader. I will respond to all intelligent questions or comments. BTW.......look at all the options seminars and systems being held all over the country. You really think these guys can beat the options gane with all their software and coding? No!!! The scholes model has already been proven to be flawed and most pro money managers wont touch them. A few funds who use only options and have a good year or 2 get all the hot press coverage and write books..........and then quietly fade away when their "system" no longer works. Options have killed more people than Hitler. You wanna buck that? Be my guest. Oh....I wont even tell you how many times options are manipulated so when you buy an option you pay much more than you should, and when you sell it, you get less than you should. Its a rigged game for insiders at brokerage firms. They are the house. In the end, like a roulette wheel, they get all the money from both black and from red. Buyers and sellers.That double zero cannot be beat.

      • SEA, now at $7.56 is being sucked into that large dark hole with the rest of the market.

        I bought a lot a lot of EGLE on the dips the last week and earnings released today show more strength than most stocks in most sectors. Shippers are plodding along with reduced rates but most seem to be staying above water. I firmly believe that bulk shippers will be among the first to show gains. Raw materials, fuel and food are necessary commodities before any resurgence in the world economy.

        The diversity of SEA and the many Asian shippers in the index should provide early positive returns. How long this will take...... I do not know. The pps is at bargain prices and I believe that money invested and held or traded will be a smart play for years to come.
        With the DOW in the 6000 range is will be hard to miss buying for long term positive returns.

        The world is changing..... not ending. I heard someone on the tube saying today that old money is vanishing but there are huge opportunities for new money to grow dramatically.

        Carpe Diem

    • I agree with you. I bought 2000 at 11.16. I thought it was the safest way to go with a large capitol gains potential.
      I still think it is the best way to trade the shippers even tho I am down about 2 1/2 points.
      I am down more in DRYS, NM and GNK.
      GLTA

    • No, I totally agree with you. I am parking in SEA and PBJ!

 
SEA
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