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Dollar Tree, Inc. Message Board

  • variationisenemy variationisenemy Sep 21, 2012 4:37 PM Flag

    Looking weak

    The stock is acting like a balloon losing its air. Dollar hit the upper regression channel & is going back down, looks like what occurred around the first week of August. Money flow continues to trend down. There was a "death cross" with the 50/100 SMA at the end of August & the trend may produce another with the 50/200 SMA around the first week of October. There's a Fibonacci number at $48.36 which may provide support or perhaps the 200 SMA at around $47.75 will.

    I'm thinking that Dollar will probably hit that regression line again at $46 around the end of this month & start forming a base. I bought a Nov 45 put in case things don't turn - at least that will leave me with a return for the year.

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    • Looks like the stock has been consolidating for awhile now (9/12 - today). Once the stock goes above $48.11 (FN) / $48.21 (200MA) / $48.60 (new regression channel), the stock will move out of this consolidation & move up to the $50 level where it should encounter some resistance (FN@ $49.95, 100MA @ $50.52, plus a lot of people bought around $50 late July / mid August & they may want to get out when they BE.) The upgrade also gives me an upward bias going into earnings.

      • 1 Reply to variationisenemy
      • DLTR is the priciest of the group for a reason, it's the best. Bob Sasser is one smart cookie and their stores are by far the best customer experience of the dollar stores. It's had a big run over the past few years and IMO is merely taking a breather. Still has great growth and the PEG is reasonable. Selling the OTM puts on the pullback has been like shooting fish in a barrel.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Thanks for buying my puts. I back the truck up every month. I've sold the October 42's and 45's. Puttin on size here. I've also sold the NOV-42, 43 and 45 strikes as well as the Jan-13 38's.

73.43-1.72(-2.29%)Feb 11 4:00 PMEST