Earnings are scheduled August 18. I would wait until then to jump into BHP. Last year right after August earnings this stock flew from $52.27 to $ 87.23 in 3 months.(see chart) I'am hoping for the same kind of movement as last year considering they raised their prices on ore. Hold tight until then. GL
That would be a great indicator based on historical trends, but does that include the unstable futures commodities that is impacted by the weakened USD, current energy conditions and oil price increases, which all have global impact. However BHP's diversity and recent instances such as the 15% increase in Ore output due to China's demand should promote growth. I admire BHPs overall ability to adapt to world changes and I agree that their 1st fiscal quarter will be strong.
so crumpta, in other words, we are just guessing and playing in the biggest casino of em all...like everyone else. Sure this puppy will be way higher in 5 years from now. But..what if there is an oil glut and that brings all commodities down. And have you seen gold's trend lately. I wish they would convert to a trust so I could pick up a nice divvy on this baby. Then Id be a buyer in a big way!
IMO it has nothing to do with a weakening of the fundamentals of BHP. All the mining sector (along with gold)has been getting slammed over the last several months.
And Wall Street now trades by rotating in and out of entire sectors. I see that movement as I scan the sectors. For a day or two, tech, solars, commodities all boom. Next dthey sell sell off and financials, consumer goods, and pharma all light up. Next day they sell off and some other sectors will rise significantly. And if any sector experiences any bad press, then they short the crap out of the sector in general and the particular stock in particular.
The pattern appears to be short sell stocks down to an unwarranted low, then go long, ride it up, then exit position and short it to repeat the cycle.
You can particulary see this happening with RIMM, AAPL, and FCX.
BHP has been going down on no bad news. Earnings are coming up mid August and they should be excellent. There will be huge buy blocks coming up here shortly to pick this up at some predetermined price and then BHP will rise into earnings and "they" will make an incredible profit.
Unfortunately BHP's share price is irrationally moved more by commodity prices than underlying value. The same for RTP and FCX. Compare the three with the spot copper price graph links below:
Who says markets are rational. HOwever if you compare the BHP chart with the DJ & SP averages, BHP outperforms over the long term if you buy and hold.
I hear you. I was thinking about the same thing. My analyst friend informed me of that some big pocket is forced to liquidate their assets to cover their big loss. Many excellent stocks such as BHP, RIO, RTP got hammered down without any specific reason/infos.
I think it goes down another $10.00 or so before earnings in August, so my strategy is to buy August $70.00 puts until about a week before Aug 18 , then buy November $70.00 calls and hope it makes a big jump to the upside (like it did last year) The reason I think it's going down is because of the sell off of coal and oil recently, however If they surpass earnings estimates then this stock should jump to the upside.